Hello whatever readers are left of this blog,

As you'd have noticed I stopped blogging here a while ago. We are going back now to 'politics as usual' after the race in Spain and I don't think that many non-Spanish speaking people would want to follow the topic, neither I find it exciting enough at the moment to do so.

But as I really enjoyed blogging so I set up a new blog over at wordpress.com. The new blog is called Forgesian Thinking. It will focused mainly in UK politics but a bit of everything will be thrown in to make it a bit less dense than Zapatero '08 was. There will be stories on the American race, Spanish politics (of course) and anything I find relevant to share with the world really.

So please click on the link and come around have a look!

Hope to see some of you over there soon.

Rajoy stays

Mariano Rajoy, the defeated PP candidate in the March 9 election has pledged himself for a third candidacy to the Presidency in 2012. This will be his second term as leader of the opposition.

Rajoy met yesterday with his party leadership and stated his intention to fight for reelection as leader of PP in the summer conference. Heavyweights like Aguirre and Camps, presumed potential succesors, have announced that they won't challenge the current leader. PP is well known for its hierarchical organisationl discipline, hardly leaders' are challenged in public. If Rajoy wants to stay it will be hard to kick him out, only someone with greater authority within the party could force him out, and that person is Jose Maria Aznar. So far Aznar, of whom Rajoy is his chosen successor in 2004, hasn't spoken after the electoral defeat. I presume many younger and ambitious candidates will be awaiting his judgement on the disarray within the conservative party.

Rajoy's uncertain future

International coverage

UK:
The Guardian
BBC
The Times
Financial Times

US:
NY Times
Washington Post

France:
Le Monde

The electoral analysis

With all votes counted the official results are as follow in number of seats, in brackets the 2004 results:

PSOE: 169 (164)
PP: 153 (148)
CiU: 11 (10)
PNV: 6 (7)
ERC: 3 (8)
IU: 2 (5)
BNG: 2 (2)
CC: 2 (3)
UPyD: 1 (-)
Na-Bai: 1 (1)
EA: - (1)
CHA: - (1)

The trend is one of increased bipartisanship with two clear losers, IU and ERC that lose 3 and 5 seats respectively. UPyD wins one seat in Madrid and enter Congress.

These results show that the electorate is worried about more radical forms of peripheral nationalisms. It also shows that PSOE has lost a small part of its more moderate 'Spanish' vote to PP and UPyD. However, PSOE makes clear inroads into peripheral nationalist areas in the Basque Country and Catalonia. For the first time in 15 years PSOE wins more votes than the Basque nationalists (PNV) in the three Basque provinces.

So a electoral conclusion would be that PSOE has moved towards the left of the spectrum, winning seats from nationalists and left wing parties. PP on the other side make a small inroad into the more moderate Socialist voters worried about immigration and nationalisms. However, PSOE's increase in votes and the more radical parties losses mean that Zapatero can enjoy a comfortable four years governing on his own with specific pacts with moderate nationalists in Congress. Moreover, Zapatero having dealt with the most controversial parts of the reforms he promised, the territorial ones, should enjoy a more popular mandate until 2012 with a focus on the economic and social policies. PP on the other side has also gained seats which probably will mean that some of their policies on immigration and territoriality will stay. However, their ultra-agressive attitude in Congress these past four years will change as it has failed them. The big question is if Rajoy will stay as leader or resign. With yesterday's results both things are possible, Rajoy could stay arguing that his number have gone up, but younger and more charismatic candidates might be planning to move his chair. Too early to say.

Overall, four more years for PSOE which is a great accomplishment after the very tense past four years. However, lessons must be learnt. A more efficient communication policy is needed to better explain Government actions and policies. Moderation will be essential to not forget our core vote. I am aware that plenty of left wing voters feel that IU and other left wing forces deserve a greater share of the seats and could come back to vote for them in 2012. If that's the case we will need our moderates back.

But for the time being, sit back and enjoy a victory that was tough to achieve but that all Socialists, leadership, activistis, grassroots, all of them have fought inch by inch until the final victory.

ISTA, ISTA, ISTA, ESPAÑA ES SOCIALISTA!

It's official now, Zapatero has won reelection with 169 seats to 153 for PP.

In the wise words of Alaistair Campbell, thank fuck for that.

We get a bigger majority to govern the country in a more comfortable way. Four more years of Socialism are exactly what Spain needs.

Rajoy conceded victory to Zapatero, but did it in a not very convincing way. For me the most important message to come out of PP's leadership mouth is we will change our opposition strategy. Less confrontation and more cooperation for the good of the country.

But the big news tonight is that PRESIDENT ZAPATERO HAS WON REELECTION IN SPAIN!

I want to thank you all the people who has read this blog for the past five months. I will keep writing for the next few days with post-election analysis. After that I will reflect on what to do with the blog and maybe change the topic slightly, but definitely enjoy blogging and hope to keep doing it in the future.

The final result 169 for PSOE, PP 153. The party still goes on. I would like to remember Isaias Carrasco murdered by ETA on Friday. This Socialist victory is in your honour. Rest in peace comrade.

More offical data

With 51.34% of all votes officially counted:

PSOE: 172 seats

PP: 150 seats

Remember, 176 absolute majority.

Can't find any better word than BOLLOCKS, numbers are closing down between PSOE and PP, with 67% of all votes counted,

PSOE: 168
PP: 154

Pretty sure absolute majority seems pretty far, though the distance with PP is big enough to keep calm. More numbers to come faster now...

Andalucia

Andalucia today also voted for their regional government. Polls and commentary are talking about a Socialist victory and the reelection of Manuel Chaves as President of Andalucia. However it could be he lost his absolute majority in the Regional Assembly.

New data as I'm writing, with 16% of all votes counted, PSOE 173 seats and PP 136. PP's vote should go up though. Turnout seems to be around 73% lower than in 2004 but anything over 70% is good news for Zapatero.

I just checked on my champagne bottle and it's chilled and ready to go...hopefully.

First votes counted

With 10% of all votes counted the current result is:

PSOE: 173 seats
PP: 136 seats

Small share but the night is looking good.

First exit polls

First exit polls at 8pm.

TVE TV Ipsos poll:

PSOE: 172-176 seats (45%)
PP: 148-152 seats (38.6%)

Absolute majority is on 176 so it could happen.

Cadena SER radio:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

Antena 3 TV:

PSOE: 163-166 seats
PP: 149-152 seats

Cuatro TV:

PSOE: 168-173 seats
PP: 145-149 seats

T5 TV:

PSOE: 172-178 seats
PP: 142-148 seats

One hour to closing of the polls

Election day is gone into dead heat. The second and final statement from the Interior Ministry on participation was 2 points lower than in 2004. At 5.30 pm 60.95% of the electorate had voted in comparison to 63.02% in 2004.

Furthermore I have been looking at numbers by regions and conservative regions are voting in greater numbers than Socialist ones. However, Cadena Ser radio is reporting that in Madrid, Socialist towns are voting in greater numbers than in the more conservative capital city. Madrid has already surpassed its turnout of 2004, projections claim at 7 pm.

In 15 min. TVE station is starting their eleciton special with first exit polls in 45 min. You can watch live online here.

Anecdote of the day

Illan de Vacas, a little village near Toledo and Madrid, has a population of 6 people. Out of those 6 only 3 can vote. Under the law, every polling booth has to have three people overseeing the process and must remain open until 8pm. The obvious problem here is that the three people at the table are the only ones to vote, but by law (again) they can only introduce their ballot as agents after 8pm. This means that the three only people with a right to vote in Illan de Vacas are seating for 10 hours in front of a box waiting to cast their ballot even though noone else is going to show up to vote. The rules are the rules.

The picture above is the actuall polling station in the village. According to one of the agents they are twisting the rules a little bit by playing a game of domino and taking a little nap before 8pm.

(This is all true by the way).

First data

Turnout is high at 2 pm, 40.7%, just 0.3 lower than in 2004. However I'm looking at region by region data and Socialists regions like Andalucia and Catalonia are low (around 37%) while Valencia, Madrid and Murcia, big conservative regions are much higher (47%).

Polls close at 8 pm and the first exit polls will be ready. Final results will come out around 10 pm. All of this Spanish time (GMT+1).

I will bring you any information we get as the day goes along.

Good news in Aragon where some marginals are in play. Participation is 42.4%, higher than average but more importantly Zaragoza and Huesca the two of the provinces that are more Socialist leaning are on 43.4% and 40.24% respectively, while Teruel, more conservative and PP's economic heavyweight Pizarro home region, is on 39.74%.

Still we need a higher turnout in Andalucia and Catalonia, they are key. More to come.

She's voting, are you?

Two days after her dad was murdered by those that want to derail the democratic process she's gone cast her ballot... don't let the right win because you stayed home, VOTE!

...and a divisive PP

Yesterday the joint Congressional condemnation for the assasination of Isaias Carrasco, became exactly what it should not have been, another show of division by PP.

During the closed door meeting, Ignacio Astarloa, PP's spokesperson for justice and security in Congress, demanded a mention to the end of the 2005 Congressional resolution allowing the Government to negotiate a peace process in the Basque Country. All the parties refused his demand as unnecessary in a short note of democratic unity. Afterwards, Joan Ridao, spokesperson for ERC, proposed to have all official spokespeople together to read the statement in a show of unity. Astarloa again refused and prefered to do it each one individually. Finally, Astarloa in his statement revealed two details of the negotiations: that the rest of the parties were against the derogation of the 2005 resolution and to include any mention that no political concessions would be offered in a future peace process (this second issue the parties thought wasn't related to the institutional condemnation). Before him, Aguirre, PP's President of Madrid, live in T5 TV station, after the assasination was known, accused the Government of calling Arnaldo Otegui, the Basque Gerry Adams, a 'man of peace'. Mariano Rajoy himself in the morning avoided any strong words but a 'people know what I think' escaped his lips.

The rest of the parties (PSOE, CiU, PNV, ERC, IU, EA, CHA, BNG and CC) all read the joint statement and did not answer questions from journalists. The democratic unity broken again by the same party that had done for the past four years.

A courageous daughter...

Following on yesterday's murder of a Socialist comrade, I have here translated the words of Sandra Carrasco, daughter of Isaias, and 19 years of age. Her calm and strength yesterday was heart-stopping, people like her and her dad makes one be extremely proud to be part of the Socialist family in Spain.

'First of all I would like to thanks from the bottom of my heart the support of the village of Arrasate. Of those anonymous citizens that have come to me, my family, to offer their love and support in these hard times. Thank you to be with my mother, my brother Adei and my sister Ainara. I also want to use these cameras and mics to thanks the Socialists for being here with us.

My father has been killed for defending freedom, democracy and Socialist ideas. He has always been a courageous man, that stood up. And those that have killed him are just cowards.

But more than anything I want to ask for something. That is that the murder of my father is not manipulated by anyone. We are not going to let that happen. I, my mother, all of us are going to vote. And that is what I ask for. And those that want to show solidarity with my father, and with our pain, must go vote en masse on Sunday to tell the murderers that we are not going to take a single step back. Thank you'.

Campaigning tools

As part of my masters on politics and communication I have had the great opportunity to attend a class with Philip Gould and Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair's chief strategists from 1997 until 2005, on campaigning techniques.

In the picture above we can see how PP strategists use the grid, a communication tool promoted by Campbell when working in Number 10, that helps structure the campaign's message for clarity of argumentation. PSOE's Ferraz HQ have been refurbished to use an open plant office similar to that of Clinton's 92 Little Rock HQ and Blair's 97 Millbank HQ.

The professionalisation of campaigning in Spain is developing at an extremely fast pace and it seems there are evidence that some of those techniques are coming from the anglosaxon world.

ETA kills again

Public excitement, the democratic spirit, politicians talking to the people, everything has been shattered at 3 pm today. ETA has assasinated Isaias Carrasco, a former Socialist candidate to councillor in the village of Mondragon in the Basque Country. Carrasco was killed in front of his wife and daughter at their home's doorstep.

The official campaign has been cancelled and an emergency Congressional meeting has been called by President Zapatero at 7 pm today. Zapatero is flying back to Madrid from Malaga while the Interior Minister, Perez Rubalcaba, is coordinating activities already from the Ministry.

Isaias Carrasco was a PSOE candidate in the past May 2007 local elections and currently worked as a ticket officer in one of the motorways in the area.

This nonsense has got to stop, one cannot but dream of a day when we will have a democratic election in this country free of the fear of terrorism...

Out and about

In an exercise of extreme egocentrism I would like to point out that Zapatero '08 has got a mention in Charlie Beckett's blog.

Charlie is the Director of the Polis Institute at the London School of Economics. You can check out his blog listed in the blogroll below, some of you might have seen it before as the link has been there for a while. The Polis Institute is a journalism and society think tank attached to the Media department at the LSE as well as the London College of Communications.

A big thanks to Charlie and the LSE Media department, where I'm enrolled, for their support.

The internet overtakes electoral law

Following on yesterday's poll in El Periodic of Andorra, new polls abroad give us a peak on how things are looking before Sunday despite the legal ban enforced within Spain.

El Periodic on its final poll today puts PSOE at 42,6% and PP on 38,6%. PSOE goes up 0,2% and PP down 0,4% from yesterday's poll. This poll today was conducted by GESOP with 1,200 interviews higher than yesterday's with just 900.

The Times newspaper in London has also published a poll that puts PSOE up 3.8 points, the Socialists will get 43,1% of the vote to PP's 39,3%. Interestingly enough, The Times poll also shows a staggering 55,7% of males and 68,1% of females supporting PP's proposal for a contract for immigrants entering Spain.

I think these two polls give a pretty accurate picture of the situation at the moment. The Periodic poll also predicts a lower turnout than in 2004 (75,66%) at around 70%.

The campaign will draw to a close at midnight today, the blogosphere-led Project 80% (aimed at achieving a 80% turnout on Sunday) is on full swing, so wherever you are pick up your phone, laptop or any other way you can contact voters and let's get out the vote, remember low turnout hurts us and that's what PP has been playing at for the past four years. Don't let them play with our democratic system, vote!

UPyD-PP: a comparison

One of my readers has challenged me to give further evidence of Diez being a puppet for PP. Firstly, I'd like to thank him for his comment that always enriches debate and secondly I will gladly accept his challenge.

Here are some comparisons in statements between Diez and the PP leadership:

'It's an obscenity the use of numbers to count the dead'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'It's very miserable of him to compare numbers of deaths'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 5, 2008.

'It means Zapatero is against the Pact for liberty and against terrorism'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'With the arrival of PSOE to power the Pact for liberty and against terroism is broken'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on June 2, 2006.

'When I say Spain breaks I mean a fracture of constitutional Spain'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 24, 2007.
'The secessionist menace, the breaking of the State, the fragmentation of the national sentiment. In other words, a great national crisis'- Jose Maria Aznar (PP) on October 4, 2007

'Those that don't put it up [the Spanish national flag] attack the citizenry'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'It's the flag that unites us all and it has to be put up in all the town halls of Spain'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on September 8, 2007.

'PSOE has stopped being a centralist party and started defending the nationalists' interests'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2008.
'PP defends better the interests of Spain and of all its citizens'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on February 22, 2008.

'To act against terrorism without political concessions'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'To support the Government in the anti-terrorist fight but without political concessions'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 27, 2006.

The fact is that Diez uses the same catastrophist language as Rajoy and Aznar and focuses her entire campaign on supporting PP's key attack lines. Furthermore, for all those that don't know who Rita Barbera is just simply say she's not your moderate conservative of the likes of Gallardon and Villalobos but rather part of the hardline within PP, more Aguirre style.

A vote for UPyD is a vote for PP

After Rosa Diez graciously hanged around with Rita Barbera, the infamous PP Mayor of Valencia, during the regional festivities, do we need any more prove that Diez and her new party are nothing more than a puppet for PP?

Let images speak for themselves. Barbera known for her staunch partisanship would never have invited anyone from PSOE to attend her populist rallies around Valencia capital. Diez has shown her true colours now and nothing she says can change her image or that of UPyD.

I'd like to know what Fernando Savater has to say about this picture though, as he always claims their new party is leftwing to the core, don't think Barbera would be his favourite companion...

A final push

We are three days away from election day. No polls allowed anymore, the campaign finishes tomorrow as Saturday will be left by law for citizens to think and make up their minds for the Sunday vote. Having said that electoral laws obviously don't apply in Andorra where today El Periodic newspaper has published a poll that puts the Socialists 3.4 points ahead of PP. Frankly, the poll argues that PSOE lost some votes after the second debate and that participation is expected now around 64%, I find those facts hard to believe. The poll was conducted only with 600 phone interviews which doesn't seem very thorough. Also all final polls in Spain have given PSOE and advantage of around 5-6 points so would doubt a 900 interview poll would give a more accurate picture, still it's good to remind us that we have three days to mobilise leftwing voters and get out the vote.

Socialist activists need to go out there for a final push to win big on Sunday, leftwing voters have to go vote, we need a high turnout to win and let the right know promoting abstention without providing proposals for the country doesn't work in Spain.

Freedom for Western Sahara

Some of you may know, some of you might have never heard of this conflict in your lives. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised. This conflict, the same as plenty of other conflicts in Africa and Asia, have been forgotten by us Westeners.

However in Spain the Western Sahara conflict is still alive and kicking. Thousands of Saharaui children come every summer to Spain to study and enjoy a well deserved holiday after plenty of years of missery in the Tindouf refuggee camps in Algeria.

The conflict goes as follows. Western Sahara used to be a colony of Spain all the way up to 1975 when the so-called 'Green March' by Moroccan troops and civilians in the last days of Franco's dictatorship invaded the territory. After Mauritania and Morocco divided the Western Sahara territory, the Polisario Front, the Saharaui independence movement, declared war and managed to expel Mauritanian forces though not the Moroccan ones. In 1991 a UN-backed peacekeeping force, MINURSO, forced a ceasefire enforced until today. Morocco on one side and the Polisario and Algeria on the other keep reclaiming autonomy within a Moroccan state the first and an independent Saharaui state the latter.

I, as a Socialist and a former activist for the freedom of the Saharaui people, believe it is time Zapatero, if reelected on March 9, pushes for a final solution, self-determination, to the Western Sahara problem. The Polisario Front and plenty of Saharauis have felt betrayed by us Socialists who negotiated with Morocco our immigration policy and fishing quotas. And as much as it might hurt it's true. But we can't anymore turn a blind eye to the sufferings of plenty of people stranded in the middle of the Sahara dessert waiting to go back to the territory is rightfully theirs. I know Morocco is our most important southern neighbour, I know our immigration, security and fisheries policies are extremely dependent on them. But an injustice as big as that suffered by the Saharaui people for 33 years embarrasess me as a Spanish Socialist and a friend of the Saharaui people as most PSOE activists are.

We, I believe, are going to win on March 9, it's about time we start demanding what we expect from our incoming government...and freedom for Western Sahara is long overdue.

More international support for Zapatero

Today the left-leaning French newspaper Liberation dedicates an entire edition of the paper to the Spanish general election and praises Zapatero's fusion of economic modernisation with social progress.

On the other hand, the platform to support Zapatero, created by a group of artists and other intellectuals, has added new names to their support base for a Socialist victory on March 9, including Carlos Fuentes, Daniel Barenboim, Bernardo Bertolucci, Helen Caldicott, Ian Gibson, Joseph Stiglitz and Gervasio Deffer.

A very unhelpful little girl

I find curious the fact that on Monday's debate Rajoy mentioned (again) an imaginary little girl in his closing statement and so did Obama on his concession speech in Texas... will Rajoy use it as well in his concession speech on Sunday? The girl isn't bringing much luck to her candidates it seems.

The Church radicalises itself

Antonio Maria Rouco Varela, archbishop of Madrid, has been elected today head of the Spanish Catholic Church, the outgoing leader, Ricardo Blazquez, will be vice-president.

Rouco Varela, the leader of the ultra-conservative section of the Catholic Church in Spain is well known across the country for his opposition to the Zapatero government as well as most of its social reforms including gay marriages, abortion law, citizen's education, peace process and stem-cell research. Ricardo Blazquez, a moderate, beat Rouco Varela for the leadership in 2005 by just one vote but hasn't been able to hold to the position after the further radicalisation of the Church in the last four years.

This latest development should make Zapatero rethink his original position and start a review of the State-Church pact. Spain deserves a more inclusive Catholic leadership than the one just elected.

The final blow on the economy

Pedro Solbes, the Socialist Finance Minister met the business council in Madrid yesterday to explain the Socialist economic programme for the next four years. During the closing statements the President of the Council directly stated the Council's preference for PSOE to run the economy after the Sunday election. Diaz Ferran thanked Solbes for lowering the tax on businesses from 35 to 30% and said 'on March 10 we'll be knocking on your door to continue working together as we did these past four years'.

The statement was an important one to reassure investors and businesses that Zapatero and Solbes make the best team to deal with the current global credit crunch. However, the big surprise of the day came when Manuel Pizarro, PP's strongman on the economy, went to Onda Cero radio and accused Diaz Ferran of favouring PSOE because he was going to personally benefit from it and slagging off the entire business council.

I think after yesterday's debate, Zapatero got the big 'mo' for the last four days of the campaign. Rajoy and Pizarro are looking like dead men walking. Pizarro's accusations yesterday weren't just pure bitter rant, they actually show how when things don't go their way, PP leaders attack anyone on their way in the most intransigent of ways.

Moreover, the monthly consumer trust index (ICC-ICO) shows a greater trust on the economy by the electorate. Trust on the future of the economy has gone up 5.9%, current domestic situation (6%) and that of the country in general (5%). Seems PP's economic catastrophism message is deflating like a balloon.

Flash polls: Zapatero wins big

Left leaning MSM:

Publico newspaper/La Sexta TV: Zapatero 49.2%, Rajoy 29.8%

Instituto Opina: Zapatero 50.8%, Rajoy 29%; who will win the election: Zapatero 85.3%, Rajoy 14.7%

El Pais newspaper: Zapatero 53%, Rajoy 38%. Headline: Zapatero wins with strength and arguments.

Righ leaning MSM:

El Mundo newspaper: Zapatero 49%, Rajoy 40.9%. Headline is Rajoy challenges in vain Zapatero to defend Spanish language in Catalonia.

ABC newspaper: Zapatero 51.2%, Rajoy 49.8%

La Razon newspaper: Rajoy offers solutions (they are VERY rightwing). Their editor on the radio just a minute ago said according to their experience polls aren't necessary to give a reasonable answer, I guess he feels their opinion is more important. Very journalistic, wouldn't you say?

Other MSM:

La Vanguardia newspaper headline: Zapatero wins. Their ten pundits vote Zapatero 5.5, Rajoy 4.5 out of 10.

Debate...

The final debate is over, and I'm really confused...I seriously am.

I feel Zapatero proposed plenty of policies and ideas for the next four years. Rajoy has worked well however, he's been calmer and focused on tough issues for the Socialists. Zapatero has failed to settle certain issues. In the closing statements Zapatero has done much better, smiling and connecting well with the camera. Rajoy in his closest stament has gone back to his little girl that to be fair didn't connect the first time and produced plenty of jokes on the internet.

But the worst moment I think has been when they have interrupted each other too much in the terrorism debate. There Zapatero has gone too agressive. But to be fair Rajoy was lying through and through in his argument.

Overall, as a Socialist Zapatero connected with me well, even if I was going to vote for them anyways. But the key ones are independents and there I think those expecting proposals got what they expected from Zapatero and didn't from Rajoy. However Rajoy did push Zapatero a bit and Zapatero got slightly unsettled.

Having said that, Cuatro TV (left leaning station) has given Zapatero 50'8% and Rajoy 29% with 16% calling a draw. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. I don't know if I am too tense to watch the video impartially or if their is skewed to the left. I will bring you more polls in a bit as they starting coming, but if Cuatro is roughly right in their prediction I think we could be looking to a bigger majority than expected, something (praising myself here) I predicted in this blog a while ago here.

Pundits on radio and TV are saying that Rajoy has done good but conviction was lacking and voters perceived that. He was looking like a serious oppossition leader, but not as President.

Last campaign video

A winter comeback this week is worrying PSOE strategists, so they've made this video that will run until Friday evening the last campaign day before 'quite Saturday'.

Get out the vote through and through!

Final debate tonight.

The final debate, six days before polling day starts in about 40 minutes. As the one before you can watch it live in El Pais website.

Spanish elections in British media:

You can watch a small BBC report on the first debate here (the video on the top right hand corner of the page).

And an editorial by the Financial Times today here

I will bring you a summary of the debate when it ends and whichever flash polls we might have then.

ETA calls for Basques to abstain

ETA yesterday bombed PSOE's local offices in Derio, a village in the Basque Country, at night having warned of the attack beforehand.

Later on, in a note to Gara newspaper encouraged the Basque people to abstain in the March 9 election to delegitimise the Spanish state within Basque territory.

It seems to me that what ETA is really looking for is a PP victory in March 9. Elorriaga yesterday in the FT admitted that PP's electoral strategy is the promotion of abstention because it hurts PSOE (a participation below 70% will make the race too close to call). And now ETA seems to promote the same view within the Basque country, a more Socialist-leaning region.

The reason is that for those hardliners within ETA it's become a problem the good image the Zapatero government has in the Basque country. An inclusive Spanish central government means less support for ETA in his own turf. ETA hardliners would rather see the divisive discourse promoted by PP that will drive Basque moderate nationalists into more radical stances against an intransigent Spanish central government.

ETA's main weakness is the diminishing social support it enjoys in the Basque country. A return to a more centralist conservative government will get some of that support back to them. We should not let go on ETA, they are weaker than ever, a return to divisive politics under PP would mean a return to a stronger ETA at home in the Basque country.

New polling data

El Periodico newspaper- PSOE (42.5%), PP (37%).

Telecinco TV- PSOE (44,2%), PP (38,6%).

Expansion financial newspaper- PSOE (41,7%), PP (38,2%).

Publico newspaper- PSOE (44,7%), PP (39,3%).

FT on Spanish election

The Financial Times today has published an article on the conservative strategy to promote abstention and Zapatero's get out the vote strategy. You can read it here

Video blitz

'Great' Aznar moments (I)

'Are you suggesting NATO should bomb Lebanon?'- Stephen Shackur
'If is necessary yes'- J. M. Aznar
(Aznar interviewed in BBC's Hardtalk show during the Israeli-Hizbullah crisis in summer 2006)

'Raul Castro represents the continuation of tiranny in Cuba'
(Aznar's statement on his way back from a dinner party in Lybia hosted by Muammar Al Gadaffi, according to human rights organisations Cuba currently has 234 political prisoners, Lybia 450).

'Look me in the eyes, I am telling you Iraq has weapons of mass destruction'
(Aznar's statement to Congress on the eve of the Iraq war).

'Who are they to say one cannot drink and drive?'
(Aznar criticising the safety warnings by the Road Safety Agency during the Annual Wine Convention in 2007. In that same year 1,700 people died in car accidents in Spain).

'Young fascists are tired of giving and not receiving, tired of listening to promises and receiving failures [...] I, as a youth, and having read a copy of the Complete Works by Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera, I have taken a decision.'
(Aznar writing on SP magazine in 1969 as a young falangista- Francoist official and only party- of his admiration for Primo de Rivera's writing. Primo de Rivera was the main ideologue of Spanish fascism).

'I speak Catalan in the intimacy of my home'
(Aznar courting the Catalan nationalist leader, Jordi Puyol, for a coalition government in 1996).

Populist fears made in PP

Rajoy has lost the battle of ideas during these last four years because he never accepted his defeat in 2004. He has spent four years blaming others of his own failures and hasn't done a critical self-evaluation of what made him lose the election then.

The campaign arrived and he found himself rethorically empty, only attacks no proposals. But then he found the issue that conservatives across Europe like most, immigration. For a country like Spain where its population emmigrated in the mid 1900s and that now receives immigration, this is a dangerous development. El Pais newspaper today has published an article showing that 2 out of 3 Spanish kids are today looked after by foreign babysitters and Consumer magazine that 90% of carers for the elderly and other dependent people in Spain are also immigrants. How could our country cope without those people? People that accept lower salaries to do jobs Spaniards don't want to do anymore, long hours, sometimes even sacrificing their own families' welfare to produce a living wage.

Rajoy should know he's playing with fire when appealing to the emotional side of the electorate. And I ask myself, is it really worth it to incite hatred and fear to win an election? And more importantly is he willing to sacrifice Spanish values and our democratic consensus that took us so long to achieve for personal gain?

Zapatero must win to let the Spanish right know that there are certain values dearly hold by the Spanish people that cannot ever be put into question. Our democratic system and our image as a welcoming society are at stake on March 9. You've been warned.

Polls on the debate.

Who won the debate according to flash polls:

Cuatro TV- Zapatero 45.4%, Rajoy 33.4% (Men: 63.6% Zapatero, 36.4% Rajoy; Women: 51.8% Zapatero, 48.2% Rajoy)

La Sexta TV- Zapatero 45.7% Rajoy 30.1%

Antena 3 TV- Zapatero 45%, Rajoy 39%

El Mundo newspaper- Zapatero won by little but won't say before tomorrow's edition.

La Vanguardia newspaper set of experts- Zapatero 5.5, Rajoy 5.1 out of 10.

El Pais newspaper- Zapatero 53%, Rajoy 39%

Just read that this debate is the first one to have been available for deaf people. I have to say little things like that show PSOE's continuing concern with democratic accessibility.

Debate summary and apology

First of all I have to apologise for not have blogged live the debate, but wasn't able to watch and write at the same time on my laptop.

Secondly, Zapatero, I believe, has won the debate tonight. It felt great to have presidential debates back in Spain and frankly that only has happened under Socialist governments.

The debate started slowly, with the candidates observing each other tricks, and then moved into top gear when entering the issue of ETA's terrorism and inmigration. Rajoy has gone really tough and made a massive mistake by accusing Zapatero of betraying the terrorist victims again (he mentioned it in Parliament many times before).

As the debate was moving forward, Zapatero started liking himself. He sorted through the economic section quite well showing graphs and hard data on growth and employment. The second section on social policy, Rajoy knew he couldn't beat Zapatero's government on social policy with the new dependency and equality laws as well as pensions and minimum wage. He moved quickly into inmigration, a populist right wing topic, talking about crime, illegal inmigration and public services. Zapatero here did well in two things, he avoided getting into the inmigration debate by sticking to the long list of Socialist social policy achievements and then adressed the issue of inmigration reminding Rajoy on how many inmigrants fight and die in the Spanish armed forces. The third section on foreign and security policy, Rajoy went into overdrive accusing Zapatero of betraying the victims. Talking heads on the radio and TV are all mentioning how that was a massive mistake by Rajoy reminding voters of his nastiest side that some were already forgetting. Zapatero did well not accepting the proposition that he betrayed them and then reminded voters of Rajoy's alliance with Bush and his support for the Iraq war. In his final statement Rajoy gave a very strange speech on a little girl growing in Spain that didn't connect well in its imagery neither in its supposedly aspirational tone. Zapatero did a similar speech but it connected better and his delivery was good, avoiding reading and using a calmed but firm voice.

On a personal level, Rajoy failed to support the Ebro water plan that my local conservative government in Murcia has always defended and won many votes out of. Zapatero forced him to state if he was going to propose its construction again and he failed to say yes. I hope my fellow Murcians will take note of his statement when casting their vote on March 9.

More on flash polls as they come out in a bit.

First presidential debate tonight!

The first presidential debate in Spain in 15 years is 3 hours away. It can be watched live in El Pais online website.

For those of you that don't understand Spanish, I'll be blogging the debate live as it happens as I did with the economic one last week.

So tune in for some good mano-a-mano between Zapatero and Rajoy. If it goes as the weekly PMQs normally does, it should be a good one for us. But as any good political strategist would tell you, it's all about lowering expectations... so frankly expectations are so high that Zapatero really needs to shine tonight to keep the momentum PSOE finds itself in since last week's debate. We are now four points ahead of PP from 1.5 just three weeks ago.

Those annoying third party candidates

This past Sunday, Ralph Nader, the left-of-the-Democrats independent candidate announced in Tim Russert's Meet the Press that he's running again for the US Presidency. Then he went on to attack Democratic candidates Obama and Clinton for their 'spineless' candidacies and the need for someone with substance in the left to lead the country. His annoucement has shocked the DNC that fears another 2000 campaign when Nader took away support from Al Gore in the key state of Florida. On the other hand, Republicans are delighted with his announcement and attacks on the Democrats.

Nader's isn't an isolated case. In plenty of elections disgruntled 'I know better' egocentric so-called progressive candidates enter the fray harming the electoral possibilities of mainstream left wing parties. It springs to mind the case of Rosa Diez in Spain. A Socialist Euro MP for many years, she contested the leadership of the party twice (1997 and 2001) and twice lost. So realising that she couldn't be a senior figure within PSOE, she started her own party. UPyD was launched this past summer in Spain and is participating in the March 9 general election. Diez claims her new party is PSOE without Zapatero's support for peripheral nationalisms in Spain (i.e.: Catalan and Basque mainly). However, her entire campaign so far (and we are two weeks ago from polling day) has been focused on attacking Zapatero and the Socialists and playing into PP's electoral strategy. And she's getting around 4-5% of the vote which could give her party one seat in Congress and take it away from PSOE in an very tight race.

Nader, like Diez, should know better. If they really cared about the electorate they would step aside on these elections where they know real decissions are at stake. Especially when they don't present any new policy and just focus on slagging off those progressive parties that can actually win. Such is the case of the 2008 Spanish and American elections and their bids are nothing but big circus of egocentrism and nothing to do with the good of their countries.

Famous third party candidacies (not necessarily all bad ones though):

- Ken Livingstone (London mayoral election 2000). Ken Livingstone presented himself as an independent candidate opposing the official Labour candidate Frank Dobson. Livingstone won the race with Dobson coming third behind Tory Steve Norris.

- George Galloway (UK General election 2005). Left the Labour Party in opposition to the war in Iraq and created his own party, RESPECT. He won the seat for Bethnal Green and Bow defeating incumbent Oona King from Labour.

- Ciutadans (Catalan regional elections 2006). Claiming to represent the interests of Spanish-identified Catalan voters, Ciutadans within months of its foundation won three seats in the Catalan Assembly.

- Ralph Nader (US general election 2000 and 2004). Nader, running as a Green candidate in 2000, claim there was no difference between Al Gore and Bush Jr's bids. His popularity then took away key votes from Gore in the state of Florida that eventually made Bush president.

- Joe Lieberman (US Mid-term elections 2007). Having been de-selected by his own party (and the liberal blogosphere) for his support for the war in Iraq, Lieberman ran as an independent beating Ned Lamont, the official Democratic candidate, to retain his seat in the Senate.

The official campaign starts!

The campaign is officially on. Zapatero from Madrid and Rajoy from Cadiz kicked off their presidential campaigns.

The economic debate tonight gave me a big boost of optimism, Solbes destroyed Pizarro with voter-friendly language, visuals and tough attacks on the conservative agenda. Certainly Pizarro's proposal to scrap the current housing policy really hurts PP with young voters and women.

I also just got a letter from the head of the Socialist Congressional list for Murcia, my constituency, asking for my vote.

PSOE has also put out a very interesting campaign. Its PEB asks for people to go vote (abstention hurts us) at any cost. But the video shows a Socialist young voter going to pick up his mum in the village to take her to the polling booth even if he know she's going to vote PP. Nice positive message, will it work? I think so, bold nevertheless.

Economic debate live blogging

Pedro Solbes, the Economic Minister, is debating Manuel Pizarro, former CEO of Endesa electrics, and PP candidate.

Solbes is hitting hard, giving lots of data and explaining it well. Pizarro is trying to go into abstract issues. Solbes should keep it up, go hard on Pizarro, he's twice the man.

Household economy now... the trickiest part for us, let's see.

Solbes presenting data, might need to simplify a bit the discourse, too technical I think. Salaries growing over inflation and attacking PP on the famous 'decretazo' that froze salaries for two years in the early 2000s.
Pizarro now attacking with polling data and the last economic data since the credit crunch...Solbes needs to hit hard in his reply now, this is the most crucial point of the debate!!

Another graph by Solbes, nice little touch, a big bar graph with Spain at the top of GDP growth in the EU.

Solbes turn now...

Great point by Solbes, Pizarro wants polling data, Solbes just hit him with polling data showing Socialists are more trusted to deal with the present crisis. Nice!

30 billion euros would be the cost of the fiscal reform proposed by PP, Solbes is asking Pizarro which cuts are they going to make to pay for it.

Pizarro is going nuclear now, saying they will cut the money from the negotiation with terrorists! PP's classical strategy, no solution then demagogy.

Solbes just called Pizarro a demagogue, read my mind. He's attacking Pizarro on housing policy because PP proposes to scrap the housing ministry, bad call by PP, housing is a key issue these days with young people in Spain. And they get to vote...

Solbes on a great Socialist policy, pensions gone up and he's showing graphics on live prime time TV, classic! Pizarro's face has just gone pale.

Solbes has just shown the cover of conservative El Mundo newspaper from 1994 where Pizarro defends the privatisation of the pension scheme. Ouch!

Pizarro is not coming out well... going back on the apparent lack of trust on PSOE to run the economy, which polls show isn't true. He goes back to macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in the past months because of the global credit crunch. That's not a good strategy when you talk about household economy, one should stick to easy examples people can relate to. I'd say Pizarro 0 Solbes 1 so far in the debate.

Little break on the debate, the moderator in his concluding remarks has mentioned 'the scrapping of a ministry', little nice hiccup that leaves viewers with the image of PP scrapping PSOE's popular housing policy.

Debate back again with next block of questions, electoral proposals...

Pizarro is far too liberal for the Spanish electorate, I'm pretty liberal but I know my co-citizens aren't there yet.

Pizarro has first defended the fight against climate change and is now talking about keeping coal as a source of energy!! nice shot at the marginals in Asturias, big mining region in northern Spain.

R+D investment under PP was 0.5%, Solbes mentions how he has put it up to 1.5% and pledging up to European standards in the next four years. Solbes now going into education policy and how is dependent on regional governments and PP regions are bottom of the table.

84 bilion euros spent on infrastructure under the Socialist Government, the same amount as all the cohesion funds ever received by Spain from the EU since its inclusion.

Pizarro is showing graphs as well now, quick aides during the break.

Solbes showing Socialists policies on gender equality and the new dependency law. Two popular policies with the women vote.

Solbes back to housing, good issue for us.

Closing statements...

Pizarro's closing statement on the current crisis as PSOE's fault. Also how PSOE has been creating political division and partisan economic institutions. Not very good I would say.

Solbes talking about how Spain is best prepared to face the current crisis. He's proposing a choice of vote, pessimism versus optimism. Solbes going on his record, healthy public finances and high social spending on competitiveness. PP, he points out, tax cuts and social spending cuts. Solbes points out how he has always worked in the public sector serving the country unlike his opponent.

The debate is finished... Antena 3 is producing a poll in 40 minutes but I feel Solbes has won big time. Solbes 4 - Pizarro 1, in no single issue Pizarro has won. Talking heads in Onda Cero radio, conservative radio station, are spinning for PP but I think people will see through the smoke screen. Nevertheless they are saying Solbes has won.

These talking heads are shameless, outrageous spinning, not a single Socialist on the after-debate commentary. They are even defending demagogy as a campaign technique! Voters will definitely see through, let's see the poll though.

PP's lies about ETA's terrorism

A video on PP's negotiation with ETA in 1998 that they now claim never existed. In it one can see Aznar calling ETA, Basque Liberation Movement. As I've said many times before, they lie and lie and lie...

PP copies his campaign from Latin America.

I found out today that PP's new slogan and PEB for the official campaign starting tonight at 10.00 pm Spanish time, is copied from two Latin American campaigns ran by Antonio Sola, the Spanish neocon strategist.

The slogan 'Con cabeza y corazón' (roughtly translated as 'with reason and heart') is almost an exact copy from the conservative Patriotic Party of Guatemala slogan 'Mano dura, cabeza y corazón' (again translated roughly as 'firm hand, reason and heart').

The video is copied from Felipe Calderon's presidential campaign in Mexico, again designed by Sola. In the video, one can hear Zapatero talking about economic growth while a family sees their household stuff taken away repossesion style. Frankly, I think noone in Spain would go as far as fearing repossesion, that's why I think the video overmakes it a bit in the line of Sola's overdramatisation in his campaigns.

PP official sources claim Sola is there just to advise Rajoy on telegenity and 'tie picking', they make me laugh. They lie and lie and lie and got no shame. However, I don't think this is a story big enough to be embarrasing to PP, it only excites us political junkies. Note this is not the first time PP has copied a campaign slogan, I reported a similar case on this blog some months ago.

Cannot find the videos on YouTube, but you can see them in Cadena Ser's website here

News of the day.

A very quite day in the campaign trail, but rumour has it that El Mundo newspaper, in perferct coordination with PP and its leadership, is preparing several shock-and-awe headlines for the last days of the campaign. PSOE should be ready for it, frankly the lot at El Mundo are a nasty bunch that deserve every name in the world but that of journalists.

On a diferent issue, I've got several texts and email messages from friends asking why is it Spain doesn't recognise Kosovo as an independent country. Many of you must have guessed already, but the reason is that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence cannot be acknowledged by Spain because it would pose a precedent for the Basque Country to take the same action.

Finally one for your diaries', remember the first debate of the campaign season will be this coming Thursday between Super-Minister of the economy Pedro Solbes and PP's Manuel Pizarro. The time hasn't been decided yet but assume 10 pm prime time unless the parties arrange for something special (that exact time is the official opening of the formal campaign). The channel will be Antena 3 which hopefully I'll be able to get on streaming online.

New poll and BIG warning

The most prestigious poll in Spain, CIS, has given PSOE an advantage of just 1.5 points over PP in voting intention for the March 9 election.

Although Zapatero's personal numbers are high and Rajoy's are pathetically low, conservative PP keeps closing the gap as election day draws closer. The official campaign hasn't started yet, we haven't had debates yet, but PP's campaign is light years ahead of PSOE's, and that is worrying me a lot more than our programme being far ahead of theirs.

Noone debates the fact that this election is crucial, for us is about further modernisation both social and economic, for PP is about rolling back social liberalism and getting back their caciquist control of the economy.

Today however we saw how things can change and PSOE can hit back at PP. Felipe Gonzalez, former President from 1982 to 1996, has shown the way and PSOE leadership should follow his line. He stood up in a podium in Barcelona and bashed every single PP leader hard, where it hurts. Stop the nice-guy campaigning, it has failed us and can make us lose the election. If they are nasty so can we be. Spain is definitely left-leaning that's why PSOE has a comparative electoral advantage, conservatives know it as well and they have gone negative. They are gaining ground day by day, their noise neutralises our message. We need to hit back and we need to do it soon. Maybe Gonzalez should join the electoral team, he's the best and most experience campainger this party has and we need him now. There's a reason why he won four elections in a row. Time to wake up, the CIS poll this week has given as a warning next one could be too late.

Zapatero gathers support in Europe.

Zapatero's reelection bid has now got a website to gather support from fellow Europeans.

You can find the website here

Two Nobel Prize winners, Gunter Grass and Jose Saramago, have already joint the platform's manifesto.

Our home-grown Lynton Crosby?

It has emerged that Antonio Sola, a political consultant from the Madrid firm Ostos & Sola, has been advising Rajoy since September on the campaign trail.

Sola is a conservative political consultant of the neocon school. He has advised campaigns in Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina and Guatemala. But where his campaign skills have been more prominent was in the last Mexican presidential campaign when he got Felipe Calderon elected president. He was the creator of Calderon's campaign slogans such as 'Citizens behind bars, criminals on the streets' and 'A firm hand, passion for Mexico'.

Sola copies the campaigning style of Lynton Crosby and Karl Rove by using demagogy, manipulation and sensationalism to appeal to the emotional core of voters in issues such as immigration or religion. That will explain Rajoy's latest turn to a tough agenda on immigration, abortion and gay marriages among others. His business partner, Gloria Ostos, has been behind several of the so-called 'spontaneous' demonstrations of the religious right since 2004.

Sola is a close friend of Jose Maria Aznar and collaborates with the neocon FAES thinktank. If PP has got Sola, PSOE should be alert, his campaign style is tough and difficult to beat, PSOE will need to rebutt all the demagogy and populism with clear and concise messages. It also seems now Rajoy has made his mind up about the debates, he's blocking the negotiations because he knows he's weak in face-to-face debates. I think he's ready to avoid a debate to focus on populist messages against the Socialist more complex policy proposals.

It's going to be a close race.

Time to deal with Gibraltar.

After the latest ship accident on Gibraltarian waters affecting the Spanish coast, it's time Spain deals with the greater threat Gibraltar has become.

Let's be clear, I'm not trying to make a patriotic statement here. I couldn't care less whether Gibraltar stays British or becomes Spanish. But when the British government keeps using Gibraltar (Tireless nuclear sub, Samothraki, Sierra Nava, New Flame,...) as a dumping site away from its own isles, it becomes a problem for both the Gibraltarian and the Spanish people.

I find it quite interesting that I have read not a single mention of the New Flame case in the British media, not even a single one. I would like to know why the British government and media feel Gibraltar isn't worth their attention as British citizens.

The Spanish government has to seriously take into consideration the actual situation of complete indifference taken by the UK towards the extremely serious environmental situation developing in Gibraltar. Because they are British territorial waters, the Spanish government cannot enter them and sort out problems and sea traffic. But obviously if something goes wrong, the problem is for us.

I'm not demanding the classic 'Gibraltar is Spain' solution. I'm asking that the UK takes serious action about the disastrous environmental problems its attitude is creating. And that Spain forces such action on the UK. Enough is enough.

Live interviews.

Cuatro TV station has carried out two in-depth interviews. One on Monday with Rajoy and Tuesday with Zapatero. The interviewer was Iñaki Gabilondo, one of my favourite journalists. Conservatives hate him because he's definitely left-leaning, though he's not scared to push whoever whenever he thinks is necessary, as he did with Zapatero in this interview.

Overall I think Zapatero came out better, specially on the economy which is going to be the key battleground. Rajoy as always very 'on message', very pessimistic though. More substance came out of Zapatero's mouth than Rajoy's.

Also important to know is that one million more people watched the President. I think this means voters want to hear the details of the socialist manifesto, while they know what message is going to come out of PP. Different is the fact that PP's negative message is sticking, as polls show. So far my personal opinion is that PSOE's message is more attractive to voters but it isn't easily getting through PP's noise. Communication is going to be key, again debate, debate, debate, our path to success.

For Spanish-speakers you can watch the interviews here

Rajoy and the audacity of idiocity

Rajoy, PP's candidate to the Presidency of Spain, thinks that Spanish people are stupid and have no memory. We know you have been a public official before mr. Rajoy and we know you weren't very good at it. In fact, you are by far the worst Minister of the Interior this country has ever had.

This is no subjective conclusion, we have facts:

- Highest homicide rate in Spanish democratic history, 2001-2002, when Rajoy was Interior Minister, the number was 1,251. Under the current Socialist Party, homicides are down to 987 in 2007. Fact.

- After the Socialist Party lost power in 1996, it left behind 125,000 police officers. In eight years of conservative PP government that number actually went down to 118,000 (7,000 less officers). Under the current Socialist government, in 2007 we have in Spain 136,000 officers, 17,000 new officers. Fact.

- The PP government spent in 2003 0,49% of its GDP in public safety, the Zapatero government has put that number up to 0,60% of the GDP. Fact.

There you go, facts versus demagogy, don't let PP supporters tell you conservatives are better at keeping you safe, because it's just a big fat lie. Fact.

The radio host that came in from the cold.

Jimenez Losantos is known throughout Spain as the bishops' star host in COPE radio. Known for his ultra right wing stances and bitter attacks on the left and anyone on the right that's not a hawk, it was no surprise that in 2006 he took on PP's Mayor of Madrid for his 'soft' positions in his radio show. Unfortunately for him, the Mayor, sued him for insults and defamation against his person.

Rajoy removed the Mayor out of the Congressional lists for the election, as I reported here a while ago, forced by the hardliners within PP, many close to Losantos, himself an influential figure in rigt wing circles in Spain. That was seen as a sign of weakness by Rajoy but he wasn't ready for the bombshell that follows...

Losantos has called Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, Acebes, Secretary General of PP and Zaplana, official spokesperson for PP, to declare against Gallardon, the Mayor of Madrid, in court! Rajoy has fallen in his own dithering trap. He has let this nutter run freely for the sake of winning an election and now Losantos has got him into serious trouble. If these senior PP officials don't testify against Gallardon, Losantos will certainly retaliate, if they do they will be testifying against a member of their own party, and one proud of its internal cohesion as well.

How's Rajoy going to get out of this one? certainly not looking good. Hopefully they'll testify before election day...

Losantos's statement on air against Gallardon:

'The Mayor of Madrid doesn't want to know who kills people by the hundreds in his own city'

- Gallardon was Mayor at the time of the 2004 Madrid bombings, Losantos is the greatest exponent of the 'conspiracy theory' that blames Basque terrorism instead of Al-Qaeda for the massacre although the courts have ruled that it was Al-Qaeda alone that carried out the attacks.

The online video revolution.

After the absolutely brilliant Obama 'Yes we can' online video, a new one has come out about McCain... again fantastic, have a look...

The arts with Zapatero.

Musicians and actors have made this video to support Zapatero's reelection bid.

On a personal note, pretty proud Joaquín Sabina, my favourite musician, is the first guy on the video.

Quote of the day.

'Today there are no real right wing parties in Europe. The majority are becoming social democratic ones and don't talk about the issues people really care about, like inmigration. The only exception is Partido Popular (PP) in Spain, a real right wing party'

Filip Dewinter
Leader of Vlaams Belang, the notorious Belgian extreme right party.

Day and night of political endorsements.

Zapatero has today recived the public support of the independent National Research Council and soon there will be a manifesto endorsing him from the scientific community called 'Science and University with Zapatero'.

Rajoy has received the support of the Spanish Catholic Church.

No need to go any further. 21st century Europe, which party you think is better prepared to keep the country on its modernising path? Science or religion?

Crazy electoral promises, made in PP (II)

This section is going to grow faster than I thought (don't underestimate right wing paranoia as a force of nature when it comes to policy production).

Rajoy and inmigration. Rajoy has come out with a new legislative paradigm, the law of local customs. He has come out with the 'great' idea of creating a contract for inmigrants who want to reside in Spain for over a year. Such contract, according to Rajoy, would entail inmigrants respect for Spanish customs such as monogamy or the illegality of female genital mutilation (he could only name those two in an interview yesterday on prime time TV). Most probably Rajoy doesn't realise that a) local customs are not socially or legally defined therefore difficult to be codified, and b) his two examples are already part of Spanish law therefore his contract would be legally redundant. New show of hands, please. How many of you readers think this is an actual sensible and legally sound proposal or a simple let's blame the inmigrant that doesn't vote situation? I would go for the second choice again. Specially after Arias Cañete, the disgraced economic spokesperson for PP, yesterday went on an off message rant claiming that inmigrants exploit the public health service and work badly 'because I used to get my coffee and croissant speedily before [when we had Spanish waiters] and not anymore [now that inmigrants are the waiters]'. So there you are PP's inmigration policy, you make them pay taxes but don't let them use public services they are entitled to, force them to sign a contract with Spain as if we were an employer and finally if the contract is 'broken' the government and inmigrant can go on a long judicial fight, costing us taxpayers money, to clarify what the contract actually said.

Let's see if that proposal will be put up in regional elections where inmigrants vote in 2011... doubt so, they are crazy but not that crazy.

Crazy electoral promises, made in PP (I)

After four years in the opposition, presenting not a single initiative neither trying to propose improvements to any laws made by the Zapatero government. After four years of saying no to every single legislative proposal going through Congress. After four years of actually sitting down and saying nothing constructive, one would have thought PP officials would have thousand of great proposals ready to go for the campaign. We were all wrong...

PP and climate change. Rajoy has promised to plant 500 million trees in the next four years!! That would account for planting 238 trees per minute or equally 12 trees per person in Spain. Let's do a show of hands? How many readers think this is actually possible and how many think is a crazy idea to counteract his statement six months ago that climate change didn't exist and backfired? I'm going for the second one.

Thought it was hilarious? don't worry there are plenty more of these, just keep an eye in this section 'Crazy electoral promises, made in PP'.

The need for an urgent clear message on the economy and more importantly, stick to it.

Jose Blanco, PSOE's secretary of organisation, points out in his blog that the economic slowdown in Spain is being fueled by the economic data in those regions governed by PP.

Navarra (10.15%), Murcia (9.63%), Valencia (8.14%), La Rioja (7.87%) and Madrid (7.7%), all governed by PP, are the regions where unemployment has risen the most. On the other hand Socialist regions such as Galicia (3.99%), Extremadura (3.59%) and Andalucia (4.4%) have the lowest unemployment rises in the country.

There is a very simple explanation for this. While in the last four years the Zapatero government has focused in switching the national economic model to a more competitive system, PP regions have stuck to the model they know best, unsustainable construction. The central government on one hand has invested in R+D, education and scholarships to improve human capital and high-tech employment, while PP regions have the lowest investments on those fields.

The Spanish economy is ready for a global crisis because public finances are healthy. However, if we want the country to switch economic models to higher efficiency, quality of labour and high value-added production, we need to target those regional economies that lag behind. And those ones are clearly conservative-led ones as unemployment data shows.

Time to speak up. The economy has become by far the most important issue in the campaign, PSOE needs a clear and coherent message to counteract PP's economic demagogy. Once that message is found, and I think regional differences between PP and PSOE regions is a key issue, PSOE should repeat it consistently to let it sink into the electorate's mind. There is too much at stake to let PP win in the last metres of the race.

Showing their real colours.

And another 'rare' case of radicalism for the self-appointed moderate right in Spain.

PP has presented a homophobic journalists as number 2 in their lists to the Senate for the province of Albacete. Dimas Cuevas, former editor of the local newspaper 'La tribuna de Albacete', was approached by PP and later accepted the party's proposal to seek a seat in the Upper House. Because PP normally does get three seats in Albacete Cuevas place is almost guaranteed this time around.

Dimas Cuevas is well known in the province for his homophobic articles in the local press. It's not just the fact that he's homophobic, it's that he ridicules gays and lesbians through what he calls 'folky humour'. You let me know where the humour is in claims like this made by Cuevas: 'in gay weddings the meals will be hot dogs and baked bananas' or 'if I suddenly die, I beg my kids aren't given in adoption to a gay couple, after so many years of good education and hard work wouldn't want the poor kids to end up like that'.

He has now apologised for his comments saying they weren't supposed to insult anyone. Frankly, it's him, Rajoy and the entire PP who insult the electorate's intelligence thinking that he didn't mean it or that PP has changed as a party. It hasn't, it is still the nasty party in Spanish politics.

Obama wins Madrid.

So after SuperTuesday political madness, I thought I'll rally home a curious fact. The Spanish section of Democrats Abroad based in Madrid gave its final support to Barack Obama. Spaniards also seem to prefer Obama over Clinton these days.

You can watch a little video by El Pais newspaper of the Democratic party in Madrid here.

New PSOE video out.

PSOE has put out a new PPB this week. I think the idea is great, exposing PP's negativity. However I think the video could have been a bit tougher...still great video to contrast two very different visions, aspiration versus catastrophism.

Have a look,

Lines of attack ready.

Graph extracted from Publico newspaper.

It's all clear to me now. When we are less than two weeks away from the beginning of the official campaign, both main parties, PSOE and PP, have finalised their attack lines.

On one side PSOE is going to focus on the radicalisation of PP in the right, while PP is going to focus the message on making the global economic slow-down a PSOE problem at home.

The key to the election outcome is going to be the mobilisation of the left wing vote by PSOE.

Publico, a left of the centre newspaper, has published today a new poll suggesting that as election day draws closer, the left vote is starting to mobilise and show in the polls, therefore PSOE according to the poll would today get 44.6% of the vote and PP 38.2%, a 6.4 points difference.

I would rather say that this poll shows how Zapatero's share would go up if he gets the hyper-critical left to mobilise (the also known 'exquisite voter').

Also, I still back the proposition I made in this blog months ago, the two debates are going to be crucial. People are hungry for direct no-nonsense debate between Zapatero and Rajoy, I believe that is the single one most valuable asset Zapatero got in the one month official campaign to win big on March 9.

Political courage should be rewarded.

Today El Pais newspaper published a new poll that shows PSOE 3.4 points ahead of PP. The poll data also shows that PSOE's voters are less mobilised than those on the right. Therefore the key to victory on March 9 will be abstention. PP's share of the vote is mobilised to its maximum which means that they can go much higher than the 38.6% of the share they already have got. PSOE on the other hand has a greater potential for share growth. When the electorate is asked which party they would be more likely to vote for if they would, the 3.4 difference goes up to 10 points. However likelihood of vote cannot be equated to actual voting on polling day, the greatest Socialist nightmare in this election.

If one looks at specific issues, PSOE's implemented legislation is extremely popular with the electorate (an average of 7.18 out of 10 value points). However it is the failed peace process with ETA (4 out of 10) what has monopolised most of this term's media attention.

The key conclusion one can take out of this poll (with a sample of 2000 people) is that Zapatero has led his government with extreme force of political conviction rather than crowd-pleasing flip-flopping. It's obvious that if the government would have stuck to its 2004 electoral manifesto, which they have succesfully implemented, PSOE would find itself in a much better position and certainly within the possibility of absolute majority in March. However Zapatero has taken on not just his 2004 promises but also a great deal of unpopular but essential issues that affect Spanish society since 1975 with the restoration of democracy.

I believe that politicians are there to lead, to listen to the people but also to tackle grave problems of which no solution will ever be satisfactory for everyone. Zapatero has done that and that's the reason why he's not in such a comfortable position as he could have been. Zapatero has shown political courage on top of fulfilling his electoral promises and I believe such stance should be rewarded on March 9 for the sake of our country's democracy.

Bishopping around

The Catholic Church in Spain is becoming such a big joke I don't even know how long is going to take for people to stop going to mass. The bishops have today announced that they will discourage any Catholic from voting for any party that supports peace negotiations with ETA.

Well, that pretty much leaves us with no party to vote for. As UCD negotiated in 1977, PSOE in 1987 and PP in 1999 (yes, even if Aznar now claims not to have done, he did call ETA the 'Basque liberation movement').

So there you are if you are a Spanish Catholic you should convert to a new form of rare Spanish Catholic anarchysm!

It seems old fellas it's time you all get taken to a retirement house, you've absolutely lost it now.

You can find PSOE's official reponse (in Spanish) here

The international card in the campaign.

A small mistep by the Socialist camp yesterday has given Rajoy a bit of a boost. PSOE seems to have forgotten about the symbolic importance of international support in democratic politics. While Felipe Gonzalez in the 70s and 80s actively seeked the support of European Socialists in Germany, France and Scandinavia, Zapatero seems prone to avoid such endeavours.

However, it seems to me that under the current state of European social democracy, Zapatero is more popular and high profile abroad than any other Socialist leader in Europe could ever be in Spain. The only two strong leftwing governments in Europe are the UK and Spain. France, Germany and Italy have no strong Socialist oppositions that could be brought to endorse Zapatero. And in the case of Brown it would actually, under my point of view, backfire because of his support for the war in Iraq and the commonly held view in Spain that Labour isn't really a leftwing party and Brown isn't really Tony Blair.

On the other hand, Rajoy yesterday went away to Paris to meet with Sarkozy and Merkel in a UMP rally. As you can see in the video below, Rajoy doesn't look the most decissive of leaders, neither Sarkozy nor Merkel seem enthusiastic enough about Rajoy's presence. It looked more like a 'family obligation' sort of show, a bit like wearing that ugly sweater your grandma made when you go see her.

So many today in Spain may wonder if PSOE has lost support in Europe. I would say that would be a big mistake to make. Zapatero remains by far the most popular leftwing leader in Europe. When Segolene Royal was campaigning in France she brought Zapatero over to rally the French socialists. Sarkozy, despite his official endorsement of Rajoy yesterday, was quick then to point out shared views between Zapatero and himself. Furthermore, today Merkel and Zapatero are meeting in Majorca for the Spanish-German summit and the French-Spanish one, a month ago, brought about the most important anti-terrorist alliance ever agreed in Europe between Sarkozy and Zapatero.

Those that think Zapatero isn't a very influential leader abroad should think twice about it. When he has gone abroad he has achieved his proposed goals and he maintains excellent relations with our neighbours (Morocco, Algeria, France and Portugal), within the EU and in the UN, through the Alliance of Civilisations project. Those who equate international standing with Aznar-like noise-making are extremely ignorant about the nature of Spain's strengths in the international sphere. Spain should be a soft-power, a diplomatic bridge between Latin America, the Arab World and Europe. Our history proves that is where we should be and not trying to embrace more than we should, like Aznar did in Iraq.

Having said all that symbolism from a communication perspective counts, how about a US Democrat endorsement? That would really be quite something, and if is Obama even better.

Here is the video, it is certainly an awkward moment, I wouldn't really call that an endorsement...judge for yourselves...