Rajoy stays

Mariano Rajoy, the defeated PP candidate in the March 9 election has pledged himself for a third candidacy to the Presidency in 2012. This will be his second term as leader of the opposition.

Rajoy met yesterday with his party leadership and stated his intention to fight for reelection as leader of PP in the summer conference. Heavyweights like Aguirre and Camps, presumed potential succesors, have announced that they won't challenge the current leader. PP is well known for its hierarchical organisationl discipline, hardly leaders' are challenged in public. If Rajoy wants to stay it will be hard to kick him out, only someone with greater authority within the party could force him out, and that person is Jose Maria Aznar. So far Aznar, of whom Rajoy is his chosen successor in 2004, hasn't spoken after the electoral defeat. I presume many younger and ambitious candidates will be awaiting his judgement on the disarray within the conservative party.

Rajoy's uncertain future

UPyD-PP: a comparison

One of my readers has challenged me to give further evidence of Diez being a puppet for PP. Firstly, I'd like to thank him for his comment that always enriches debate and secondly I will gladly accept his challenge.

Here are some comparisons in statements between Diez and the PP leadership:

'It's an obscenity the use of numbers to count the dead'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'It's very miserable of him to compare numbers of deaths'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 5, 2008.

'It means Zapatero is against the Pact for liberty and against terrorism'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on May 5, 2008.
'With the arrival of PSOE to power the Pact for liberty and against terroism is broken'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on June 2, 2006.

'When I say Spain breaks I mean a fracture of constitutional Spain'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 24, 2007.
'The secessionist menace, the breaking of the State, the fragmentation of the national sentiment. In other words, a great national crisis'- Jose Maria Aznar (PP) on October 4, 2007

'Those that don't put it up [the Spanish national flag] attack the citizenry'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'It's the flag that unites us all and it has to be put up in all the town halls of Spain'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on September 8, 2007.

'PSOE has stopped being a centralist party and started defending the nationalists' interests'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2008.
'PP defends better the interests of Spain and of all its citizens'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on February 22, 2008.

'To act against terrorism without political concessions'- Rosa Diez (UPyD) on September 30, 2007.
'To support the Government in the anti-terrorist fight but without political concessions'- Mariano Rajoy (PP) on May 27, 2006.

The fact is that Diez uses the same catastrophist language as Rajoy and Aznar and focuses her entire campaign on supporting PP's key attack lines. Furthermore, for all those that don't know who Rita Barbera is just simply say she's not your moderate conservative of the likes of Gallardon and Villalobos but rather part of the hardline within PP, more Aguirre style.

A very unhelpful little girl

I find curious the fact that on Monday's debate Rajoy mentioned (again) an imaginary little girl in his closing statement and so did Obama on his concession speech in Texas... will Rajoy use it as well in his concession speech on Sunday? The girl isn't bringing much luck to her candidates it seems.

Populist fears made in PP

Rajoy has lost the battle of ideas during these last four years because he never accepted his defeat in 2004. He has spent four years blaming others of his own failures and hasn't done a critical self-evaluation of what made him lose the election then.

The campaign arrived and he found himself rethorically empty, only attacks no proposals. But then he found the issue that conservatives across Europe like most, immigration. For a country like Spain where its population emmigrated in the mid 1900s and that now receives immigration, this is a dangerous development. El Pais newspaper today has published an article showing that 2 out of 3 Spanish kids are today looked after by foreign babysitters and Consumer magazine that 90% of carers for the elderly and other dependent people in Spain are also immigrants. How could our country cope without those people? People that accept lower salaries to do jobs Spaniards don't want to do anymore, long hours, sometimes even sacrificing their own families' welfare to produce a living wage.

Rajoy should know he's playing with fire when appealing to the emotional side of the electorate. And I ask myself, is it really worth it to incite hatred and fear to win an election? And more importantly is he willing to sacrifice Spanish values and our democratic consensus that took us so long to achieve for personal gain?

Zapatero must win to let the Spanish right know that there are certain values dearly hold by the Spanish people that cannot ever be put into question. Our democratic system and our image as a welcoming society are at stake on March 9. You've been warned.

Live interviews.

Cuatro TV station has carried out two in-depth interviews. One on Monday with Rajoy and Tuesday with Zapatero. The interviewer was Iñaki Gabilondo, one of my favourite journalists. Conservatives hate him because he's definitely left-leaning, though he's not scared to push whoever whenever he thinks is necessary, as he did with Zapatero in this interview.

Overall I think Zapatero came out better, specially on the economy which is going to be the key battleground. Rajoy as always very 'on message', very pessimistic though. More substance came out of Zapatero's mouth than Rajoy's.

Also important to know is that one million more people watched the President. I think this means voters want to hear the details of the socialist manifesto, while they know what message is going to come out of PP. Different is the fact that PP's negative message is sticking, as polls show. So far my personal opinion is that PSOE's message is more attractive to voters but it isn't easily getting through PP's noise. Communication is going to be key, again debate, debate, debate, our path to success.

For Spanish-speakers you can watch the interviews here

Rajoy and the audacity of idiocity

Rajoy, PP's candidate to the Presidency of Spain, thinks that Spanish people are stupid and have no memory. We know you have been a public official before mr. Rajoy and we know you weren't very good at it. In fact, you are by far the worst Minister of the Interior this country has ever had.

This is no subjective conclusion, we have facts:

- Highest homicide rate in Spanish democratic history, 2001-2002, when Rajoy was Interior Minister, the number was 1,251. Under the current Socialist Party, homicides are down to 987 in 2007. Fact.

- After the Socialist Party lost power in 1996, it left behind 125,000 police officers. In eight years of conservative PP government that number actually went down to 118,000 (7,000 less officers). Under the current Socialist government, in 2007 we have in Spain 136,000 officers, 17,000 new officers. Fact.

- The PP government spent in 2003 0,49% of its GDP in public safety, the Zapatero government has put that number up to 0,60% of the GDP. Fact.

There you go, facts versus demagogy, don't let PP supporters tell you conservatives are better at keeping you safe, because it's just a big fat lie. Fact.

Showing their real colours.

And another 'rare' case of radicalism for the self-appointed moderate right in Spain.

PP has presented a homophobic journalists as number 2 in their lists to the Senate for the province of Albacete. Dimas Cuevas, former editor of the local newspaper 'La tribuna de Albacete', was approached by PP and later accepted the party's proposal to seek a seat in the Upper House. Because PP normally does get three seats in Albacete Cuevas place is almost guaranteed this time around.

Dimas Cuevas is well known in the province for his homophobic articles in the local press. It's not just the fact that he's homophobic, it's that he ridicules gays and lesbians through what he calls 'folky humour'. You let me know where the humour is in claims like this made by Cuevas: 'in gay weddings the meals will be hot dogs and baked bananas' or 'if I suddenly die, I beg my kids aren't given in adoption to a gay couple, after so many years of good education and hard work wouldn't want the poor kids to end up like that'.

He has now apologised for his comments saying they weren't supposed to insult anyone. Frankly, it's him, Rajoy and the entire PP who insult the electorate's intelligence thinking that he didn't mean it or that PP has changed as a party. It hasn't, it is still the nasty party in Spanish politics.

Rajoy's explanation goes up in smoke.

Before excluding Ruiz Gallardon from the party's congressional lists, Rajoy and PP officials used two preemptive arguments to protect themselves from attacks on such an irrational decision. Firstly, they said that mayors cannot be included in lists under internal party rules. Secondly, that Ruiz Gallardon could not go on the lists because mayors that did go on the lists had to be on the very top. Those were Rajoy's arguments to protect himself from accusations that PP was going centrist just for electoral purposes and they would come back to extremism after March 9.

Well, it seems that internal party rules can have exceptions, specifically 11 exceptions. And not all of them go as top candidates in provincial lists. Up to six of them are not at the very top, more than those that actually do, five.

Anyone still believes PP is genuinely gone moderate or it is just a wolf on sheep clothing? Also how can we trust a man to be President who stabs his own allies in the back to appease the most reactionary members of his right-wing establishment?

PP's internal crisis: the inside story.

After yesterday's incredible announcement by Rajoy that Gallardon won't be joining him in the Madrid list to Congress, today Arsenio Escolar has published in his blog an insider's story about what really happen. It seems the revolt was bigger than it actually looked yesterday.

According to Escolar:

At 5 pm yesterday Gallardon's name was included in the Congressional list as number 5 or 6. Rajoy wasn't sure yet because he didn't know if Zaplana was going to be head of list in Valencia, he was President there from 1995 to 2002, or if not he would have to be number 5 in Madrid.

Around 6 pm Francisco Camps, current President of Valencia and Zaplana's archienemy, spoke to Rajoy and threatened to resign if Zaplana became head of the list in Valencia. Camps' idea was to resign as President to be able to run for a Congressional seat himself. Rajoy gave up to Camps' pressure and accepted to include Zaplana in the list in Madrid. So by 6 pm Zaplana was number 5 and Gallardon number 6 in Madrid's list and Camps remained as President of Valencia.

But the key moment arrived at 7 pm, Aguirre, President of Madrid, found out on her way back from Malaga, most probably from the man himself, about Camp's victory over Rajoy. She went straight into Genova HQ to put a challenge of her own. With Gallardon present, Aguirre threatened Rajoy to resign as President of Madrid and run for Congress if Gallardon was included in the Madrid list. Rajoy once again gave up and removed Gallardon's name from the list.

After Rajoy's display of weakness, some allies of Gallardon started leaking to the press that the Mayor of Madrid had threatened to resign after the March 9 election if he wasn't included in the party's list. Rajoy today has been trying to regain his authority within the party. He's been pressuring Gallardon last night and this morning not to announce his departure from politics as the media was reporting. But it seems he's lost all authority, Gallardon has announced this morning in a press conference that after the March 9 election he will reflect on past events and take a decission on his political future.

So what looked as a terrible enough story about Rajoy's lack of authority has become an INMENSE story about Rajoy's lack of authority. Moreover, it says how little regard PP elected officials have for the offices they hold that are willing to use them as weapons to advance their political career in Madrid. But the most worrying development of it all I have just found out is that if Gallardon resigns as Mayor of Madrid, his successor will be Ana Botella, Aznar's own wife! who currently is Deputy Mayor. After all I'm not even sure if I want him to resign now...

Rajoy loses his authority.

It's now official, Rajoy has given up to PP hardliners' pressure and decided not to include Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, in the list to Congress from Madrid.

As it's been mentioned many times in this blog, key party figures have started positioning themselves for a potential leadership contest within PP in case Rajoy loses the general election. Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, and Gallardon, Mayor of the city, have been named as the strongest candidates, specially after Rodrigo Rato's departure to the private sector.

Gallardon, seen as a moderate with a cross-party appeal, have failed to promote himself within the party's structure contrlled by the hardliners, Aguirre among them, loyal to former President Aznar. Rajoy's inability to impose his wish of including Gallardon is a massive blow to his long and tortuous walk to the centre. In such a hierarchical party as PP, there are no primary elections or internal democracy of any kind, the leader is in control of all key decissions. This authoritarian model was best reflected in Aznar's personal election of Rajoy as his succesor in 2004 that the party ratified with 99% of the vote a month later. The hardliners ability to impose a decission on Rajoy, who has included Gallardon in his Monday 'maitines' executive meeting (the most important committee within PP, formed by Rajoy and his most trusted advisors), clearly debilitates his figure after a month of a strong presence of PP's leader in the news cycle and an increase of 0.4% in his popularity with the electorate.

With this surrender by Rajoy, Aguirre is a step closer to win the leadership in March if Rajoy loses. She already tightly controls the party in Madrid. It will be interesting to see what happens now in the run up to the election. If Rajoy cannot hold the party together and keep the chance of victory alive, key officials could start thinking about the leadership contest even before the campaign was over. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see what the electorate's reaction to this development will be. Gallardon is by far the most popular PP official with the electorate, however his allies within the party are very few.

Finally, it's also worrying how the likes of COPE radio, the Church's radio station, and other hardline media outlets have increased their influence within PP. Jimenez Losantos, COPE's star presenter, has publicly strongly criticised Gallardon for his moderation and openly opposed his incorporation to the party's list in Madrid.

Rajoy shoots himself on the foot (again).

Late last night a jubilant Rajoy announced that he had convinced Manuel Pizarro to be his number 2 in the list for Madrid. Pizarro, former CEO of Endesa, is a business tycoon that became notorious this last year when he battled the Zapatero Government when the control of Endesa was being disputed between EOn and Gas Natural, both also energy companies.

It seems curious to me that Rajoy, the defender of the 'great Spanish nation', could offer the ministry of the economy to a man who fought long and hard to sell Endesa to Germany's EOn even though Gas Natural's, a Spanish company, offer was better. I'd say it seems obvious now that Pizarro was opposing Gas Natural's bid mainly on political terms, guided by PP, and that effort is paying off now with a PP offer to go on its lists.

Rajoy is happy, he got a proper economist, unlike Arias Cañete before, that can actually speak economics to debate with PSOE's heavyweight Pedro Solbes. However he should have read the law before announcing Pizarro's name. Under the incompatibility of public office law, Pizarro won't be able to participate in any Cabinet meeting or take any decission on issues related to Endesa, because of his recent post in the company. In practice this means that pretty much the Finance Minister of the Central Government of Spain wouldn't be able to take decissions related to the energy market! such decissions include, tariff policy, the future of nuclear energy, future infrastructure plans and even a Finance Minister's key role, the Budget, specifically the section on energy policy.

So there you are once again image over substance is the greatest ill of PP. Rajoy has put up a person partisan to the core, with no experience on fiscal or employment policy and on top of that cannot exercise his post's competences because of incompatibility, but Rajoy must be thinking, hey! but everyone know who he is. Are we going back to PP's policies of friends in government? We surely are. I don't want a half-minister in the key department under the current global economic slow-down just because he's been a good ally of Rajoy these last years . Rajoy once again doesn't think for the good of the country he just thinks about how to win at any cost, imagine what he would be like in government!

Reality check

So everyone in the Socialist camp is starting to get nervous. As we get closer to election day many Socialist bloggers and activists are starting to wonder if PP could actually win the general election in March. Polls show PSOE ahead by just 2.5 points at national level and people wonder if the economic slow-down, though still growing, the Catholic Church open attacks and PP's communication strategy are starting to pay off for the conservatives.

Well, let me reassure some Socialists out there. We are in a good position to still win , and possibly big, on the 9th of March.

First of all, the official campaign hasn't started yet. We have two presidential debates, where voters will be able to compare Zapatero to Rajoy directly. It isn't a surprise Zapatero offered the debate and Rajoy was reluctant about accepting the challenge. In terms of personal ratings Rajoy's are the lowest in the history of Spanish democracy since 1978. On the other side Zapatero's are on a healty 58%, higher than Aznar's in 2000 when he won with absolute majority and similar to the golden years of the charismatic Felipe Gonzalez in the 1980s.

Secondly, voters before election day tend to criticise the Government for its failures and tend to overlook its achievements, that greatly outnumber the former. The important thing is that on election day the option will be a good Zapatero Government that has produced high economic growth, high employment figures, new social rights and has raised pensions and the minimum wage or a Rajoy opposition based on disloyalty on counterterrorist policy, demagogy in the territorial debate and no substance in anything thar really matters to voters. When it gets to March 9 voters will have to choose between Zapatero's positive vision or Rajoy's catastrophism.

El Pais and other outlets within the Prisa media group seem to have distanced themselves from PSOE. I will say that they are letting PSOE know that their support isn't for free, which is the right position, no Socialst government should be complacent with its achievements. But eventually PRISA won't let PP win without a fight, they are just making sure PSOE understand that the battle isn't yet won and that a tough fight should be put up. The communication war has been won by PP so far, but PSOE has a successful term and great candidates up to hit back on the prestige card.

I have been looking at the electoral map for a while now and hope for a great landslide is there. Firstly, Madrid, Rajoy's popularity there is lower than his national average, which means he most probably won't replicate Gallardon and Aguirre's landlsides there in the local elections. Murcia, with the latest corruption cases many in the rural areas could go PSOE this time around, it is doubtful, but we only need 6.000 votes to bring home the extra Congress seat allocated this time around, that would mean PP 6 seats and PSOE 4, not bad for a region politically monopolised by PP. In Valencia, again it's Rajoy who presents himself as candidate. Rita Barbera, Valencia's Mayor, has already announced she doesn't want to be candidate, which hurts PP's list there. Furthermore, Valencia is one of the regions where IU, United Left, gets one of their five seats nationally, so there is a strong left-wing minority there. Finally, Castilla y Leon, a moderate conservative region enjoys the fact that Zapatero is from Leon and the high-speed train has arrived to Segovia and Valladolid, many will be happy to change their vote in a region famously neglected previously. In the PSOE camp on the other hand, Catalonia might be upset about transport disruptions, but would they let anti-Catalanist PP win? if the election gets to close they will come out to vote for PSOE. In the nationalist regions, Galicia, Basque Country and Catalonia, PSOE has defended nationalists' right to express their believes against PP's Spanish centralism, many that voted nationalists in regional elections will go PSOE at national level just to stop Rajoy from winning.

To all Socialist supporters out there I will say come down. We have been united for four years against the demagogic attacks by PP. PP got no programme for government and a leader without any charisma whatsoever. The economic situation benefits them now? yes it does, but Pedro Solbes is our economic heavy-weight, where is theirs?. Our team, ideas and candidate are better. When the campaign officially starts the PSOE machine will roll into battle with all its assets intact. PP has spent four years creating chaos because it helps them to avoid policy, but when it comes to campaigning policy offers and an able team are what counts to the electorate, we got both and PP got none. You will see, we will be better off than it seems today.

Rajoy's movie taste.

Today PP opened a personal website for their candidate to the Presidency. I decided to have a look at it and among several things one can do is to look at Rajoy's all time favourite movies, the personal touch see.

And I was horrified! These are his three favourite movies:

Tesis (Thesis): a gore movie about torture. The movie plot is about a media student in Madrid who is writing her thesis on how far violence should be displayed on TV. She embarks herself in a journey throughout the movie watching gore videos about amputations and other forms of torture. Very pleasant.

El Abuelo (The grandfather): a movie about a grandfather who comes back from the US to figure out, after his son's death, which one of his two granddaughters is not really so. Familiar isn't it, an old man on a personal moralistic crusade to save the honour of his family, very Rajoy wouldn't you say? just change family for country and you get the picture.

Back to the future: a classic Hollywood movie. I personally quite like it and many people do as well. But would it be among your all time favourites? I don't think so. Maybe someone told him to put it up after the two previous titles. PP strategists don't want voters to think Rajoy is some kind of old psychopath. Now it seems his an old psycopath with bad movie taste.

Rajoy praises Aznar's archenemy.

Rajoy has praised Felipe Gonzalez, Spanish Socialist President from 1982 to 1996, as a man who has good ideas for Europe. He has welcomed Gonzalez candidacy as chairman of the new group of experts to look into the future of the EU.

And I wonder... why wasn't Aznar considered for this post? It was Nicolas Sarkozy, the French right-wing President, who proposed Gonzalez for the post. Why didn't he proposed Aznar? I'll tell you why, because no European right-wing leader would even dare having a photo-op taken with Aznar. He has become the toxic neo-con kind of leader. Rajoy would have loved to have Aznar rather than Gonzalez, but seeing that it was almost impossible for it to happen, well...he though he might as well praise Gonzalez's election as 'an honour for Spain'. I would say, cut it short Mariano and say it as it is, PSOE today is the only well respected Spanish party in Europe, both within the left and the right ideological spectrum.

The war within PP: Madrid.

Rajoy has declared today that it could be possible for a mayor to be candidate for Congress in March according to his party's Constitution. He gave this answer to a question by a journalist asking about the possibility of Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, mayor of Madrid, being his number 2 in the list for Madrid in the March election.

With this comment Rajoy has for the second time this year contradicted one of his own party officials. Ignacio Gonzalez, Esperanza Aguirre's right-hand man in Madrid, claimed this Sunday in El Mundo that it is incompatible to hold both positions under PP internal rules. Several months ago it was Angel Acebes, Secretary General of PP, who stated a similar position.

As this blog has been commenting for a while now there is an internal struggle within PP to position key candidates to the succession of Rajoy in case he loses the general election in March. Esperanza Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, who controls the party in the capital, has been trying for months to block the possiblity of Ruiz Gallardon entering the national lists for Congress. Aguirre cannot become a Congresswoman while President of Madrid, Spanish law doesn't permit this possibility, so she's trying to block Gallardon from doing so. The reason for this is that it's expected that the leader of the main oppossition party must be a member of Congress to be able to debate the President in the chamber. She could be a Senator under the law but the Senate attracts substantially less media attention which would make a leadership challenge from there much more difficult. Aguirre has got the hardliners within PP on her side, Acebes positioning months ago is a clear example, Gallardon on the other side got the more moderate wing of the party.

Rajoy, is seriously considering having Gallardon as his number 2 for Madrid in March, PP strategists consider that this move would put a face of moderation in PP's lists to appeal to centrist voters. But Aguirre isn't going to let it be without putting up a fight within the party in Madrid, her own powerhouse. Under PP's Constitution, the party list for Madrid has to be approved first by Madrid's Regional Electoral Committee, which funnily enough is chaired by Ignacio Gonzalez. Rajoy and Gallardon have a tremendous battle ahead to bypass that roadblock organised by Aguirre and the party's hardliners. Furthermore, Rajoy has already distanced himself from Acebes and Zaplana. If they feel left behind in the eventuality of a leadership contest they will openly align with Aguirre against Rajoy and Gallardon and the battle could then turn out to be really nasty.

Quote of the day.

'If they don't put bombs is because you have surrendered'

Mariano Rajoy tells Zapatero that if ETA stops bombing is because the Government has negotiated with terrorists (16th January 2007).

Also if people are interested El Pais newspaper following its annual tradition has prepared a special presentation on events that happened in 2007. It is quite well done and thought people might find it interesting. The site is:

http://www.elpais.com/comunes/2007/resumen_2007/

Enjoy!

Televised debates agreed.

Yesterday around 7 pm in a centric Madrid hotel the campaign directors for PSOE and PP, Jose Blanco and Pio Garcia Escudero, met to discuss the possibility of a face off between Zapatero and Rajoy on live TV. They agreed to have two debates one during the last week before the electoral campaign officially starts and one in the last week of the official campaign (sometime at the beginning of March). They will meet again next week to discuss the format and contents of the debate.

This will be the first debates between candidates since 1993 when Felipe Gonzalez and Jose Maria Aznar debated live on TV. That time around PSOE won the election. In the 1996, 2000 and 2004 campaigns PP refused to attend the debate.

A week ago Zapatero challenged Rajoy to a televised national debate. PP candidates have never been very keen on televised debates, neither in Parliament, but the latest are compulsory by law. Normally incumbents prefer not to celebrate debates because that puts the challenger at the same level with them. However challengers are pretty much forced to say yes to debates or else they are perceived by the public as too weak to take on the incumbent and therefore provide a credible alternative, and supposedly better, governmental programme.

This time around seeing that Zapatero, the incumbent, challenged Rajoy didn't really have an excuse not to attend. But Rajoy is hating the idea of a debate, he knows he's a worst speaker than Zapatero by far and he knows he can only come worse off, even more than he's at the moment. That's why he has asked for two debates, first one to see what Zapatero weak points are to attack them in a second one that will stay in the viewer's mind. Will it work? I extremely doubt it, but PP's dirty tricks are well known so PSOE should be careful about negotiating the format and contents. Zapatero debating skills are well-known and he can take the final blow to Rajoy then, but expectations for him are so high that a bad performance could boost Rajoy and put PSOE in bad shape for the last sprint to the finish line. Overall great news for Zapatero and PSOE.

I am very excited, a proper national debate live on TV. Now, problem is I have to figure out how to watch it from London.

How to blow economic stability in 3 easy steps and bring down your political credibility along with it.

Step 1: announce a tax cut. A serious one as well, no paying taxes for people earning less than 16.000 euros a year. Good electoral stuff, people love it.

Step 2: in the same speech and with no shame, keep your poker face on, announce free nursery schools for all children across the country. Not just any country, a country of 44 million people so you can show how many of them you are going to build and how noone is going to pay. People love it but start wondering how you are going to pay for it if you cut taxes.

Step 3: polls show you aren't doing very well at all. Announce a raise of 150 euros a month in the lowest pensions. People, who were already a bit suspicious, take your party's ballot paper put it in a bin and go look for someone who actually stops mocking their intelligence.

So there you have it, nice and easy, the ultimate guide to PP's political campaigning.

A conservative party, anywhere else, will always look into two issues lowering taxes and lowering public services, you might not agree with the idea, I don't, but it's coherent, less money equals less spending.

But when it comes to PP and his leader Rajoy, they always can do better. Like Jesus multiplied loaves and fishes they can lower taxes and raise public spending. Not sure people are buying it anymore. Rajoy is starting to look like Joaquín Almunia, the Socialist candidate in 2000, who knowing that he was going to lose badly started his own electoral miracle shop offering similar promises. He lost by absolute majority. Rajoy is starting to look desperately Almunia-like.

The wolf in sheep's clothing.

Pio Garcia Escudero and Juan Costa, PP chief electoral strategists have decided that it is time for PP to take the long-awaited road to moderation four months before election day.
They believe that many centrist voters in Spain aren't fully convinced with Zapatero's Government. The main reason has been the difficulty the Government has had to explain the territorial reforms undertaken during this term. Certainly PP's permanent harsh criticism of Government policy has taken a toll on how the public sees the Socialist Government. Both Escudero and Costa believe it is time to cash in those centrist voters that aren't very happy with Zapatero but wouldn't yet vote PP because of its radicalism in this past term.

The new PP electoral timetable focuses exclusively on Rajoy. PP believes they can remind voters of the moderate profile Rajoy used to have before this term and they aim at achieving that by producing a extremely personalistic campaign from January onwards. Rajoy knows this is his last chance, so equating his personal image to the verdict in the ballot box isn't a risk worth avoiding anymore. The results from the 2007 local elections are also encouraging this strategy as PP did much better (winning in overall votes but losing power share) with Rajoy as the centre of the campaign rather than the party as a whole. So this Wednesday during the weekly session to monitor Government action, Rajoy for the first time in a long time is going to ask about the economy rather than ETA. First move.

But, what about the hardliners? Rajoy's squires in Parliament, Zaplana and Acebes, have proven very useful in the legislative strategy designed by PP this term of permanent confrontation. But it's time for them to go. If you think this means the end of them, you will be very much mistaken. They simply aren't electorally attractive anymore but their brains are very much appreaciated by Rajoy and will definitely coming back into the Cabinet if PP wins the election.

That's PP's reality today, hide the confrontation and the extremists today so they can bring them out tomorrow in power. But will the extremist lot keep quite until March? I very much doubt so and then we will be able to see the real wolf underneath the sheep's clothing. If they start going off message Rajoy will confirm what everyone already suspects that he cannot control his own party. And by the way, where is Aznar?