Sarkozy's chief strategist warns Rajoy.

Another fellow conservative, Thierry Saussez, has warned Rajoy that the Spanish electorate is looking for someone to unite them. Speaking at a MAS Consulting Group conference in Madrid, Saussez has told Zapatero as well to not underestimate his opponent.

It seems PP is not really following his advise. At I write this entry, they continue to block the renewal of the CGPJ, the judges' highest governing body, agreed by all other political parties and are accused of being behind the legal action taken against PSOE's mayor of San Sebastian (Basque Country) for not putting up the Spanish flag in the city's town hall even though it is up in the lobby and meeting rooms of the building.

Mr. Saussez misses a point about PP, it being that their lack of new ideas and the permanent attack against the Government cannot stop now. They have put all their eggs in one basket and are going until the end with this strategy.

Zaplana and young Francoists.

PP has always opposed all kinds of condemnation of the Francoist regime both in Parliament and publicly but equated the PSOE government to it, well...let images speak for themselves...Eduardo Zaplana, PP's official spokesperson, went to watch the Spain-France football match during the 2006 World Cup in Germany and took a picture with a pre-democratic flag. So much for hipocrisy. I would like to hear PP's explanation for this, it's not like he looks sad or surprised the picture is being take.

PP copies IU campaign.

So it is now official, PP has ran out of ideas. First was the unworkable lowering of taxes while offering free nursery school to all families. Then was their campaign material quality, as old as it gets while letting Zapatero take the initiative in e-campaigning in Facebook and YouTube. But the last and biggest cock up by PP's Communication Team came yesterday, when IU put out a press release denouncing PP's new campaign slogan as being almost identical to theirs!!.
To be fair it wasn't very difficult to guess it. When Joe Biden in 1987 used a speech by Neil Kinnock, he was smart enough to change the wording but kept the message.
PP's Communication Team are either not that smart or are completely out of ideas, not that they have been putting out many legislative initiatives in the last four years anyways. They were not even very subtle either, they took the IU slogan from the March 2007 local election campaign, just seven months old.

I am not in the business of helping out Rajoy and the PP leadership, but just for fun...how is it Gabriel Elorriaga, PP's Director of Communications is still keeping his job after having lost the 2004 general and European elections and the 2007 local elections and now this?? But don't get me wrong if they like him I won't be the one asking for his resignation.

Bono accepts to be candidate for Toledo.

Jose Bono, former President of Castilla la Mancha and Defense Minister, has accepted Zapatero's offer to head the list for Toledo in the general election and to be the next President of Congress if PSOE finally wins the election.

This is great news for PSOE. Bono is considered a moderate within the party. He has always been a bridge between PSOE and right-wing voters and this time around it won't be different. He's inclusion in the party list will give a great boost to the party with moderates and Catholics as well as those in the left that are less friendly towards peripheral nationalisms.

With Bono, a self-proclaimed 'left-wing Catholic Spanish patriot', and Pedro Solbes, Economics Minster and former EU Commissioner, PSOE strategists are aiming to counterbalance the image the right-wing media is given of a radicalised party. Both high-profile candidates are well respected across the political spectrum and will help round up important centrist voters that previously could have stayed at home or even have voted PP.

Zapatero has shown a great strategic ability to hit PP where it hurts, their lack of moderation and cross-party appeal. Where are the moderates within PP? They all have been bullied into submission, only Calomarde spoke out and was forced to leave the party. That taught others like Celia Villalobos and Ruiz Gallardon a lesson, moderation isn't in PP's vocabulary.

The power of the Catholic Church.

So the PSOE electoral manifesto is not going to include this time around any mention to abortion, euthanasia or the State-Catholic Church Pact of 1979.

I can understand the reasoning behind this decission, though not share it. The continuous attacks by the Catholic Church and the bishops' radio station, COPE, against the Government have fuelled protests by PP voters and right-wing groups. Gay marriages and adoption as well as the non-sense attack against the new subject in primary education 'citizens' education' have proven difficult rides for PSOE during this term and taken away the support of Catholic working class groups.

The decission is oriented to prevent the Church to become an active part of the electoral campaign by rallying its 'troops' and hurting PSOE with the Catholic vote in key areas like the Basque Country and Andalucia. However I believe it is time to take the Catholic Church on and prove to them that Spanish people are ready to remove the few privileges they still enjoy rooted in Franco's legacy.

The Catholic Church still has the right to provide a Catholic education subject in public schools, with an alternative provided for non-religious students, and benefits from limited Government funding payed by all taxpayers, including non-Catholics. PSOE has to show the strength needed to remove these privileges and remove all relations between the State and the Church, only this way we will be able to remove their ability to exert such a demagogic influence in the political arena. It is public money which is funding the Church's activities which do not anymore concern helping the needed but rather to consistently attack the left in perfect harmony with PP. Until we do not bang the fist on the table the 'Catholic electoral problem' for PSOE will never go away.
It will be hard but PSOE is the only party able to finalise what was started in 1979, the complete separation between Church and State in Spain.
The decission to duck the problem is not just ideologically wrong it is also electorally wrong because the problem will come back in 2012 while I have to keep paying taxes for the bishops for another 4 years.

Corruption case unveiled in Murcia.

That widespread corruption in the construction licenses business exists in Murcia is a well-known issue in Spain. Since the arrival of PP to the Regional Government in 1995 Murcia has seen a growth in construction businesses like no other in Spain or Europe. Environmental concerns as well as the lack of water supply have not stopped the construction of endless holiday resorts and golf courts in natural reserves and other fragile coastal environments.

Both PSOE and environmental groups have denounced the situation for quite a while now. But two days ago and today especially the tip of the iceber has emerged. The mayor of Totana, a small town in Murcia, has been taken into custody together with several businessmen and civil servants charged with accepting illegal payments to provide construction licenses.

Partisan considerations aside this is great news for the people of Murcia, even if they still keep voting for these donkeys, and the region's environmenntal preservation.
On a partisan line, Murcia, due to demographics, carries an extra seat in Congress in March. In 2004 PP won 6 seats and PSOE 3, PSOE is hoping to gain the extra seat to a total of 4. They are just 6.000 votes short of it and this can only help to achieve the objective.

Congress rejects sanction to Minister.

It has been mentioned before in this blog the transport crisis in Catalonia the biggest headache for the PSOE strategists at the moment. Catalan voters staying at home means a closer election than expected in March.

Today Congress voted a IU (United Left) resolution to sanction the Minister for Transport, Magdalena Alvarez, for her responsibility in the situation. The Government and Socialist Parliamentary Group have had to work real hard to be able to secure enough votes to reject the resolution.

The final vote has been very close with a difference of three votes. For the first time PP, IU and Catalan nationalists have got together to vote in favour of the resolution. PSOE took with it the votes from the Mixed Group, Basque nationalist and the PP defector and now independent Congressman, Joaquin Calomarde.

The story and problems in the transport network are still there, but the impact of a headline in the right-wing press of a Congressional sanction on a Minister would have been far worse. It was the best that a bad day could bring about.

Rajoy, already a lame duck?

What do Rodrigo Rato, former economics Minister and IMF President, Esperanza Aguirre, former Senate leader and President of Madrid, and Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, have in common? Well... all are aiming to replace Rajoy as leader in March.

The public image of PP is that of unity and loyalty to the leader, reminiscent of past and present authoritarian organisations of the kind of the Chinese Communist Pary or Stalinist Russia. However internal realities are quite the opposite. Josep Pique (former leader of PP in Catalonia and Foreign Minister with Aznar), Joaquin Calomarde (independent Congressman after defecting from PP) and even Ruiz Gallardon have criticised Rajoy indirectly by criticising the lack of drive and modern outlook of the party. Many inside PP are concerned that even though the kind of discourse practiced by PP during this term has been its most aggresive ever, Rajoy has not been able to take a single lead in the polls since 2004.
The lack of trust in Rajoy's leadership is so evident that potential succesors have already started positioning themselves for a future leadership contest. Rodrigo Rato, one of the most valued members of Aznar's Cabinet, left the IMF Presidency earlier than his term deadline and refused to join Rajoy's candidate list in Madrid. Many believe his idea is to avoid the potentially disastrous 2008 campaign and become the party's saviour in 2012.
However the greates contest for the leadership is happening in Madrid. The Mayor of the city, Ruiz Gallardon, and the President of the Region of Madrid, Esperanza Aguirre, are clashing on a daily basis positioning their allies in the electoral lists as well as key centres of power in case of a contest.

The latest battlefront according to El Pais newspaper is IFEMA, the convention centre of Madrid and the most profitable exhibition centre in Europe. It all started as Luis Eduardo Cortes was succesfully elected to the role of Executive Director of the public company, a position newly created that takes away competences from Fermin Lucas, Director General of IFEMA and until now the person effectively running the company. It happens that Cortes is a former regional legislator from PP under Aguirre and Lucas the former Secretary General of PP's Parliamentary Group in the Regional Assembly when Gallardon was President before Aguirre. If one notes that IFEMA bring up to 1% of Madrid's total GDP then the public company becomes a key battlefield for influence in the political capital of the country. Aguirre's allies success in placing Cortes in IFEMA has forced Gallardon's threat to recuse Cortes unless he steps down from other boards of directors he is member of.

The battle has not yet started for Rajoy's succession, but the battle lines have been drawn by the party heavyweights. Rajoy was a lame duck leader since he blew up a 2,402,426 majority taking his party from an absolute majority government to the opposition; but he is now also a lame duck candidate for a party already thinking about 2012.

Whose PP's real leader?

When Aznar decided to leave the leadership of PP in 2004 he appointed Mariano Rajoy as his succesor. Following PP's tradition of lack of internal democracy and pluralism, he imposed his decision on the party. However after he left he was appointed Honorary President of PP and president of FAES, the most influential conservative think tank within PP.
He also made sure that his voice was heard within the new 'leadership' through the appointment by Rajoy of Eduardo Zaplana (Government spokesperson with Aznar) as party's spokesperson and Angel Acebes (Minister of the Interior with Aznar at the time of the Madrid bombings and its aftermath of accusations of manipulation of information) as Secretary General of the party.
The appointment of the two Aznar hard-liners together with his control of FAES have proven Rajoy's lack of independence from his predecessor and his inability to take control of the party to set up his own political agenda.

Zapatero seven points ahead in the polls.

Spain's biggest radio station has given PSOE a seven points difference over PP in their weekly 'Pulsometro' poll.
PSOE gains half a point from last week's poll to a total of 45% of the decided vote. PP's share of the decided vote stays unchanged on 38%.
According to the same poll, Zapatero's popularity is gone up to 5,24 points while Rajoy's is gone down to 3.9 points, one of its lowest since the 2004 elections.

This is all good news for PSOE especially after the last few weeks when the commuter train system in Catalonia was severly disrupted and its regional Parliament called for the sacking of the Minister for Transport. Catalonia being ,together with Andalucia, a crucial stronghold where PSOE has to mobilise its vote to win.
There are fears within Ferraz (PSOE HQ) that clear majorities in polling and continuing disruptions in key electoral constituencies could discourage the PSOE electorate to come out to vote. They are right, it is time to highlight the crucial times Spain is living and mobilise the left-wing vote across the country.

Three Nobel Prizes will help draft the electoral manifesto.

Jesus Caldera the Minister for Employment and Social Affairs and the person in charge of drafting the electoral manifesto for PSOE has announced a new team of high-profile advisors for the campaign:

1. Joseph Stiglitz.- Economics Nobel Prize Winner in 2001 and former Chief Economist and Vice-President of the World Bank.
2. Wangari Maathai.- Peace Nobel Prize Winner in 2004, founder of the Green Belt Movement in Kenya and environmental activist.
3. Helen Caldicott.- Peace Nobel Prize Winner in 1985 for her campaigning on nuclear disarmament
   
4. Nicholas Stern.- Former Chief Economist and Vice-President of the World Bank, present holder of the IG Patel Chair at the London School of Economics and author of the widely-praised Stern Review on the economic cost of climate change.
   
5. Torben Iversen.- Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University.
   
6. Jeremy Rifkin.- Founder and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in the US.
7. Maria Joao Rodriguez.- Portuguese Economics Professor.
8. Barbara Probst-Solomon.- US writer and columinst.
9. Philip Pettit.- Irish philosopher and political scientist.
10. Andre Sapir.- Brussels-based economist and expert in European convergence and globalisation.
11. Marie Duru-Bellat.- Sociologist and Education Sciences specialist at the University of Rennes (France) and former adviser to French presidential candidate Segolene Royal.
    
12. Guillermo O'Donnell.- Hellen Kellog Professor of Government at Notre Dame University (US) and prominent theorist on democratisation theory in Latin America.
13. George Lakoff.- Linguistics Professor at the University of California Berkeley.
14. Wolfgang Merkel.- Professor of political sciences at the University of Heidelberg.

The announcement produces a double effect for PSOE. Firstly, it will help draft a strong and coherent manifesto for 2008 as well as future government policy. And secondly, it shows the appeal Zapatero's government has among progressists across the globe.

You might ask yourself, who is willing to volunteer for PP's electoral team? Well, the answer is no-one. Its electoral team tried to spin this failure to attract any international adviser by putting out a PPB claiming their team is made of common Spanish people with everyday problems...well, moving, but shows PP's lack of appeal both nationally and internationally.

Welcome to my blog!

Dear reader,

Spanish political parties have fired the first shot for one of the most crucial political campaigns in the short democratic history of Spain. In March 2008 Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will seek reelection as President of Spain. In front of him will be Mariano Rajoy, the conservative candidate from Partido Popular (PP).

The 2004-08 legislative term has been marked by the outrageous aggresivity displayed by PP both in Parliament and the streets. PP together with the right-wing media have been deceiving the Spanish people through their campaing of misinformation in a vast array of issues. The levels of social upheaval has gone to unprecedent levels, it is time to let PP know that the social, institutional and economic improvements made by the Socialist administration are here to stay.

This blog aims at helping any person out there who wishes to follow the electoral season closely to do so. I will be commenting on all developments, not all political unfortunately, that could influence the campaign and electoral outcome in March.

I hope you find the information and comments here worth a read. All comments welcomed!

Enjoy!

Mario.