The electoral analysis

With all votes counted the official results are as follow in number of seats, in brackets the 2004 results:

PSOE: 169 (164)
PP: 153 (148)
CiU: 11 (10)
PNV: 6 (7)
ERC: 3 (8)
IU: 2 (5)
BNG: 2 (2)
CC: 2 (3)
UPyD: 1 (-)
Na-Bai: 1 (1)
EA: - (1)
CHA: - (1)

The trend is one of increased bipartisanship with two clear losers, IU and ERC that lose 3 and 5 seats respectively. UPyD wins one seat in Madrid and enter Congress.

These results show that the electorate is worried about more radical forms of peripheral nationalisms. It also shows that PSOE has lost a small part of its more moderate 'Spanish' vote to PP and UPyD. However, PSOE makes clear inroads into peripheral nationalist areas in the Basque Country and Catalonia. For the first time in 15 years PSOE wins more votes than the Basque nationalists (PNV) in the three Basque provinces.

So a electoral conclusion would be that PSOE has moved towards the left of the spectrum, winning seats from nationalists and left wing parties. PP on the other side make a small inroad into the more moderate Socialist voters worried about immigration and nationalisms. However, PSOE's increase in votes and the more radical parties losses mean that Zapatero can enjoy a comfortable four years governing on his own with specific pacts with moderate nationalists in Congress. Moreover, Zapatero having dealt with the most controversial parts of the reforms he promised, the territorial ones, should enjoy a more popular mandate until 2012 with a focus on the economic and social policies. PP on the other side has also gained seats which probably will mean that some of their policies on immigration and territoriality will stay. However, their ultra-agressive attitude in Congress these past four years will change as it has failed them. The big question is if Rajoy will stay as leader or resign. With yesterday's results both things are possible, Rajoy could stay arguing that his number have gone up, but younger and more charismatic candidates might be planning to move his chair. Too early to say.

Overall, four more years for PSOE which is a great accomplishment after the very tense past four years. However, lessons must be learnt. A more efficient communication policy is needed to better explain Government actions and policies. Moderation will be essential to not forget our core vote. I am aware that plenty of left wing voters feel that IU and other left wing forces deserve a greater share of the seats and could come back to vote for them in 2012. If that's the case we will need our moderates back.

But for the time being, sit back and enjoy a victory that was tough to achieve but that all Socialists, leadership, activistis, grassroots, all of them have fought inch by inch until the final victory.