Today El Pais newspaper published a new poll that shows PSOE 3.4 points ahead of PP. The poll data also shows that PSOE's voters are less mobilised than those on the right. Therefore the key to victory on March 9 will be abstention. PP's share of the vote is mobilised to its maximum which means that they can go much higher than the 38.6% of the share they already have got. PSOE on the other hand has a greater potential for share growth. When the electorate is asked which party they would be more likely to vote for if they would, the 3.4 difference goes up to 10 points. However likelihood of vote cannot be equated to actual voting on polling day, the greatest Socialist nightmare in this election.
If one looks at specific issues, PSOE's implemented legislation is extremely popular with the electorate (an average of 7.18 out of 10 value points). However it is the failed peace process with ETA (4 out of 10) what has monopolised most of this term's media attention.
The key conclusion one can take out of this poll (with a sample of 2000 people) is that Zapatero has led his government with extreme force of political conviction rather than crowd-pleasing flip-flopping. It's obvious that if the government would have stuck to its 2004 electoral manifesto, which they have succesfully implemented, PSOE would find itself in a much better position and certainly within the possibility of absolute majority in March. However Zapatero has taken on not just his 2004 promises but also a great deal of unpopular but essential issues that affect Spanish society since 1975 with the restoration of democracy.
I believe that politicians are there to lead, to listen to the people but also to tackle grave problems of which no solution will ever be satisfactory for everyone. Zapatero has done that and that's the reason why he's not in such a comfortable position as he could have been. Zapatero has shown political courage on top of fulfilling his electoral promises and I believe such stance should be rewarded on March 9 for the sake of our country's democracy.
2 comments:
In the first lines maybe you wanted to say that PP "cannot go much higher than the 38.6%". This is OK. Today another newspaper, ABC, conservative and very active in the campaign pro PP and Rajoy, has published another poll in which the difference is 3.8 points for PSOE. I think this is a reasonable advantage for the beginning of the campaign. In the future, if PSOE do things well, they will have a greater difference. In all issues Zapatero and the Government have better evaluations than Rajoy and PP. On the other side, spanish people know that this government has worked very efficiently in all fields, including economy. Congratulations for your blog.
Certainly the key will be the mobilisation of the left wing vote.
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