Debate...

The final debate is over, and I'm really confused...I seriously am.

I feel Zapatero proposed plenty of policies and ideas for the next four years. Rajoy has worked well however, he's been calmer and focused on tough issues for the Socialists. Zapatero has failed to settle certain issues. In the closing statements Zapatero has done much better, smiling and connecting well with the camera. Rajoy in his closest stament has gone back to his little girl that to be fair didn't connect the first time and produced plenty of jokes on the internet.

But the worst moment I think has been when they have interrupted each other too much in the terrorism debate. There Zapatero has gone too agressive. But to be fair Rajoy was lying through and through in his argument.

Overall, as a Socialist Zapatero connected with me well, even if I was going to vote for them anyways. But the key ones are independents and there I think those expecting proposals got what they expected from Zapatero and didn't from Rajoy. However Rajoy did push Zapatero a bit and Zapatero got slightly unsettled.

Having said that, Cuatro TV (left leaning station) has given Zapatero 50'8% and Rajoy 29% with 16% calling a draw. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. I don't know if I am too tense to watch the video impartially or if their is skewed to the left. I will bring you more polls in a bit as they starting coming, but if Cuatro is roughly right in their prediction I think we could be looking to a bigger majority than expected, something (praising myself here) I predicted in this blog a while ago here.

Pundits on radio and TV are saying that Rajoy has done good but conviction was lacking and voters perceived that. He was looking like a serious oppossition leader, but not as President.

Polls on the debate.

Who won the debate according to flash polls:

Cuatro TV- Zapatero 45.4%, Rajoy 33.4% (Men: 63.6% Zapatero, 36.4% Rajoy; Women: 51.8% Zapatero, 48.2% Rajoy)

La Sexta TV- Zapatero 45.7% Rajoy 30.1%

Antena 3 TV- Zapatero 45%, Rajoy 39%

El Mundo newspaper- Zapatero won by little but won't say before tomorrow's edition.

La Vanguardia newspaper set of experts- Zapatero 5.5, Rajoy 5.1 out of 10.

El Pais newspaper- Zapatero 53%, Rajoy 39%

Just read that this debate is the first one to have been available for deaf people. I have to say little things like that show PSOE's continuing concern with democratic accessibility.

Debate summary and apology

First of all I have to apologise for not have blogged live the debate, but wasn't able to watch and write at the same time on my laptop.

Secondly, Zapatero, I believe, has won the debate tonight. It felt great to have presidential debates back in Spain and frankly that only has happened under Socialist governments.

The debate started slowly, with the candidates observing each other tricks, and then moved into top gear when entering the issue of ETA's terrorism and inmigration. Rajoy has gone really tough and made a massive mistake by accusing Zapatero of betraying the terrorist victims again (he mentioned it in Parliament many times before).

As the debate was moving forward, Zapatero started liking himself. He sorted through the economic section quite well showing graphs and hard data on growth and employment. The second section on social policy, Rajoy knew he couldn't beat Zapatero's government on social policy with the new dependency and equality laws as well as pensions and minimum wage. He moved quickly into inmigration, a populist right wing topic, talking about crime, illegal inmigration and public services. Zapatero here did well in two things, he avoided getting into the inmigration debate by sticking to the long list of Socialist social policy achievements and then adressed the issue of inmigration reminding Rajoy on how many inmigrants fight and die in the Spanish armed forces. The third section on foreign and security policy, Rajoy went into overdrive accusing Zapatero of betraying the victims. Talking heads on the radio and TV are all mentioning how that was a massive mistake by Rajoy reminding voters of his nastiest side that some were already forgetting. Zapatero did well not accepting the proposition that he betrayed them and then reminded voters of Rajoy's alliance with Bush and his support for the Iraq war. In his final statement Rajoy gave a very strange speech on a little girl growing in Spain that didn't connect well in its imagery neither in its supposedly aspirational tone. Zapatero did a similar speech but it connected better and his delivery was good, avoiding reading and using a calmed but firm voice.

On a personal level, Rajoy failed to support the Ebro water plan that my local conservative government in Murcia has always defended and won many votes out of. Zapatero forced him to state if he was going to propose its construction again and he failed to say yes. I hope my fellow Murcians will take note of his statement when casting their vote on March 9.

More on flash polls as they come out in a bit.

Economic debate live blogging

Pedro Solbes, the Economic Minister, is debating Manuel Pizarro, former CEO of Endesa electrics, and PP candidate.

Solbes is hitting hard, giving lots of data and explaining it well. Pizarro is trying to go into abstract issues. Solbes should keep it up, go hard on Pizarro, he's twice the man.

Household economy now... the trickiest part for us, let's see.

Solbes presenting data, might need to simplify a bit the discourse, too technical I think. Salaries growing over inflation and attacking PP on the famous 'decretazo' that froze salaries for two years in the early 2000s.
Pizarro now attacking with polling data and the last economic data since the credit crunch...Solbes needs to hit hard in his reply now, this is the most crucial point of the debate!!

Another graph by Solbes, nice little touch, a big bar graph with Spain at the top of GDP growth in the EU.

Solbes turn now...

Great point by Solbes, Pizarro wants polling data, Solbes just hit him with polling data showing Socialists are more trusted to deal with the present crisis. Nice!

30 billion euros would be the cost of the fiscal reform proposed by PP, Solbes is asking Pizarro which cuts are they going to make to pay for it.

Pizarro is going nuclear now, saying they will cut the money from the negotiation with terrorists! PP's classical strategy, no solution then demagogy.

Solbes just called Pizarro a demagogue, read my mind. He's attacking Pizarro on housing policy because PP proposes to scrap the housing ministry, bad call by PP, housing is a key issue these days with young people in Spain. And they get to vote...

Solbes on a great Socialist policy, pensions gone up and he's showing graphics on live prime time TV, classic! Pizarro's face has just gone pale.

Solbes has just shown the cover of conservative El Mundo newspaper from 1994 where Pizarro defends the privatisation of the pension scheme. Ouch!

Pizarro is not coming out well... going back on the apparent lack of trust on PSOE to run the economy, which polls show isn't true. He goes back to macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in the past months because of the global credit crunch. That's not a good strategy when you talk about household economy, one should stick to easy examples people can relate to. I'd say Pizarro 0 Solbes 1 so far in the debate.

Little break on the debate, the moderator in his concluding remarks has mentioned 'the scrapping of a ministry', little nice hiccup that leaves viewers with the image of PP scrapping PSOE's popular housing policy.

Debate back again with next block of questions, electoral proposals...

Pizarro is far too liberal for the Spanish electorate, I'm pretty liberal but I know my co-citizens aren't there yet.

Pizarro has first defended the fight against climate change and is now talking about keeping coal as a source of energy!! nice shot at the marginals in Asturias, big mining region in northern Spain.

R+D investment under PP was 0.5%, Solbes mentions how he has put it up to 1.5% and pledging up to European standards in the next four years. Solbes now going into education policy and how is dependent on regional governments and PP regions are bottom of the table.

84 bilion euros spent on infrastructure under the Socialist Government, the same amount as all the cohesion funds ever received by Spain from the EU since its inclusion.

Pizarro is showing graphs as well now, quick aides during the break.

Solbes showing Socialists policies on gender equality and the new dependency law. Two popular policies with the women vote.

Solbes back to housing, good issue for us.

Closing statements...

Pizarro's closing statement on the current crisis as PSOE's fault. Also how PSOE has been creating political division and partisan economic institutions. Not very good I would say.

Solbes talking about how Spain is best prepared to face the current crisis. He's proposing a choice of vote, pessimism versus optimism. Solbes going on his record, healthy public finances and high social spending on competitiveness. PP, he points out, tax cuts and social spending cuts. Solbes points out how he has always worked in the public sector serving the country unlike his opponent.

The debate is finished... Antena 3 is producing a poll in 40 minutes but I feel Solbes has won big time. Solbes 4 - Pizarro 1, in no single issue Pizarro has won. Talking heads in Onda Cero radio, conservative radio station, are spinning for PP but I think people will see through the smoke screen. Nevertheless they are saying Solbes has won.

These talking heads are shameless, outrageous spinning, not a single Socialist on the after-debate commentary. They are even defending demagogy as a campaign technique! Voters will definitely see through, let's see the poll though.