PSOE and Catalonia

El Pais newspaper has produced a leaked memo from PSOE HQ advising their Catalan section, Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), to promote a more Catalanist discourse in the run up to the March election. The reason for this is, as mentioned many times before in this blog, that Catalonia is key for PSOE to win the election. In the 2004 election, PSOE won from Catalonia 21 seats in Congress against 6 by PP. PSOE strategists however are worried about the more nationalist vote within Catalonia that might be going to nationalist parties or abstain this time around after the infrastructure crisis in Barcelona and the delay on the arrival of the high-speed train line from Madrid.

PSOE's support in Catalonia is divided between two groups. Firstly, immigrants from other parts of Spain that moved to industrialised Catalonia and share a dual identity, both Spanish and Catalan, and which tend to go vote and represent around 70% of PSOE's share in the region. The second group is that of Catalan-born middle-classes with a strong Catalan identity that tend to vote nationalist in regional and local elections but vote PSOE in general elections as they see the party friendlier to their interets. This second group represents around 20-22% of PSOE's vote but is more volatile, as it tends to abstain more often.

This second group is the one PSOE strategists are worried about. The infrastructure crisis hits them harder than any other group, as business people, and feel that a nationalist party in a coalition government could bring in the extra investment to sort ou the situation in Catalonia. A more Catalanist discourse by the newly chosen head of list, the current housing minister, Carme Chacon, could reactivate their vote.

Although PSOE's vote loss isn't going to go to PP, it would mean a smaller number of seats to add up to the national count. PP is gearing up to fight hard in Valencia and Madrid where the biggest number of seats for them are going to come from. PSOE is focusing in Catalonia, as Andalucia, its other key stronghold, is very active politically and will carry a big majority for them.

The only problem is the leak comes from those within the party that feel PSOE is pandering to peripheral nationalists rather than focusing on a more 'Spanish' vote. Although unlikely, this can also add up to the growing concern of moderate voters from poorer regions, that feel alienated while Catalonia gets bigger chunks of the budget for public investment.