PP already looking to 2012.

The new PP campaign with the slogan 'Con Rajoy es posible', copied from IU's 'con IU es posible', has proven a total disaster for the party in a similar way to the infamous Tory campaing in the UK under Michael Howard, the 'are you thinking what we are thinking?' 2005 campaign.
Flickr users have been creating 'alternative' slogans for the campaign and the joke doesn't seem to be stopping any time soon. You can find them in http://www.flickr.com/photos/marianorajoi/

Of all the 'alternative' slogans in Flickr however there is one that is worrying Rajoy and his campaign team. It is the one with Esperanza Aguirre, the main contender to replace Rajoy if PP loses the election, laughing behind Rajoy and the slogan 'Espe 2012, with Rajoy it is possible'.

But that isn't the only reference to Rajoy's future, or lack of it, in the leadership of the party. Newspapers across the country gave big headlines to the announcement that Rodrigo Rato, another main contender in the race for the leadership, has been hired as senior executive to Europe and Latin Amercia by the prestigious investment bank Lazard. All political analysts were yesterday debating if this was the end of Rato's political career.

Many in PP are feeling relieved that Rato is out of the way thus protecting Rajoy's leadership. But the reality is that journalists are finding the battle for the leadership more interesting than whatever PP got to offer this time around, which isn't much anyway. Rajoy wasn't able to bring in Rato as part of his team, unlike Zapatero's ability to bring in Bono and Solbes, highlighting even further that he got no team to match up Zapatero's in March. The media is smellling blood already and we are still four months away from election day!

Rajoy, already a lame duck?

What do Rodrigo Rato, former economics Minister and IMF President, Esperanza Aguirre, former Senate leader and President of Madrid, and Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, have in common? Well... all are aiming to replace Rajoy as leader in March.

The public image of PP is that of unity and loyalty to the leader, reminiscent of past and present authoritarian organisations of the kind of the Chinese Communist Pary or Stalinist Russia. However internal realities are quite the opposite. Josep Pique (former leader of PP in Catalonia and Foreign Minister with Aznar), Joaquin Calomarde (independent Congressman after defecting from PP) and even Ruiz Gallardon have criticised Rajoy indirectly by criticising the lack of drive and modern outlook of the party. Many inside PP are concerned that even though the kind of discourse practiced by PP during this term has been its most aggresive ever, Rajoy has not been able to take a single lead in the polls since 2004.
The lack of trust in Rajoy's leadership is so evident that potential succesors have already started positioning themselves for a future leadership contest. Rodrigo Rato, one of the most valued members of Aznar's Cabinet, left the IMF Presidency earlier than his term deadline and refused to join Rajoy's candidate list in Madrid. Many believe his idea is to avoid the potentially disastrous 2008 campaign and become the party's saviour in 2012.
However the greates contest for the leadership is happening in Madrid. The Mayor of the city, Ruiz Gallardon, and the President of the Region of Madrid, Esperanza Aguirre, are clashing on a daily basis positioning their allies in the electoral lists as well as key centres of power in case of a contest.

The latest battlefront according to El Pais newspaper is IFEMA, the convention centre of Madrid and the most profitable exhibition centre in Europe. It all started as Luis Eduardo Cortes was succesfully elected to the role of Executive Director of the public company, a position newly created that takes away competences from Fermin Lucas, Director General of IFEMA and until now the person effectively running the company. It happens that Cortes is a former regional legislator from PP under Aguirre and Lucas the former Secretary General of PP's Parliamentary Group in the Regional Assembly when Gallardon was President before Aguirre. If one notes that IFEMA bring up to 1% of Madrid's total GDP then the public company becomes a key battlefield for influence in the political capital of the country. Aguirre's allies success in placing Cortes in IFEMA has forced Gallardon's threat to recuse Cortes unless he steps down from other boards of directors he is member of.

The battle has not yet started for Rajoy's succession, but the battle lines have been drawn by the party heavyweights. Rajoy was a lame duck leader since he blew up a 2,402,426 majority taking his party from an absolute majority government to the opposition; but he is now also a lame duck candidate for a party already thinking about 2012.