PP's internal crisis: the inside story.

After yesterday's incredible announcement by Rajoy that Gallardon won't be joining him in the Madrid list to Congress, today Arsenio Escolar has published in his blog an insider's story about what really happen. It seems the revolt was bigger than it actually looked yesterday.

According to Escolar:

At 5 pm yesterday Gallardon's name was included in the Congressional list as number 5 or 6. Rajoy wasn't sure yet because he didn't know if Zaplana was going to be head of list in Valencia, he was President there from 1995 to 2002, or if not he would have to be number 5 in Madrid.

Around 6 pm Francisco Camps, current President of Valencia and Zaplana's archienemy, spoke to Rajoy and threatened to resign if Zaplana became head of the list in Valencia. Camps' idea was to resign as President to be able to run for a Congressional seat himself. Rajoy gave up to Camps' pressure and accepted to include Zaplana in the list in Madrid. So by 6 pm Zaplana was number 5 and Gallardon number 6 in Madrid's list and Camps remained as President of Valencia.

But the key moment arrived at 7 pm, Aguirre, President of Madrid, found out on her way back from Malaga, most probably from the man himself, about Camp's victory over Rajoy. She went straight into Genova HQ to put a challenge of her own. With Gallardon present, Aguirre threatened Rajoy to resign as President of Madrid and run for Congress if Gallardon was included in the Madrid list. Rajoy once again gave up and removed Gallardon's name from the list.

After Rajoy's display of weakness, some allies of Gallardon started leaking to the press that the Mayor of Madrid had threatened to resign after the March 9 election if he wasn't included in the party's list. Rajoy today has been trying to regain his authority within the party. He's been pressuring Gallardon last night and this morning not to announce his departure from politics as the media was reporting. But it seems he's lost all authority, Gallardon has announced this morning in a press conference that after the March 9 election he will reflect on past events and take a decission on his political future.

So what looked as a terrible enough story about Rajoy's lack of authority has become an INMENSE story about Rajoy's lack of authority. Moreover, it says how little regard PP elected officials have for the offices they hold that are willing to use them as weapons to advance their political career in Madrid. But the most worrying development of it all I have just found out is that if Gallardon resigns as Mayor of Madrid, his successor will be Ana Botella, Aznar's own wife! who currently is Deputy Mayor. After all I'm not even sure if I want him to resign now...

Gallardon saw it coming.

Have a look at this video. Gallardon clearly upset about the designation of Manuel Pizarro, Aznar loyalist and former CEO of Endesa, as number 2 in the PP's Madrid list for Congress after Rajoy. He laughs and jokes around until Rajoy announces it, then his face simply freezes and after the meeting storms out without making any comments to the press.

Also the right wing press is saying that Aguirre threatened to resign as President of the Region of Madrid if Gallardon was made a candidate for a Congressional seat.

Rajoy loses his authority.

It's now official, Rajoy has given up to PP hardliners' pressure and decided not to include Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, in the list to Congress from Madrid.

As it's been mentioned many times in this blog, key party figures have started positioning themselves for a potential leadership contest within PP in case Rajoy loses the general election. Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, and Gallardon, Mayor of the city, have been named as the strongest candidates, specially after Rodrigo Rato's departure to the private sector.

Gallardon, seen as a moderate with a cross-party appeal, have failed to promote himself within the party's structure contrlled by the hardliners, Aguirre among them, loyal to former President Aznar. Rajoy's inability to impose his wish of including Gallardon is a massive blow to his long and tortuous walk to the centre. In such a hierarchical party as PP, there are no primary elections or internal democracy of any kind, the leader is in control of all key decissions. This authoritarian model was best reflected in Aznar's personal election of Rajoy as his succesor in 2004 that the party ratified with 99% of the vote a month later. The hardliners ability to impose a decission on Rajoy, who has included Gallardon in his Monday 'maitines' executive meeting (the most important committee within PP, formed by Rajoy and his most trusted advisors), clearly debilitates his figure after a month of a strong presence of PP's leader in the news cycle and an increase of 0.4% in his popularity with the electorate.

With this surrender by Rajoy, Aguirre is a step closer to win the leadership in March if Rajoy loses. She already tightly controls the party in Madrid. It will be interesting to see what happens now in the run up to the election. If Rajoy cannot hold the party together and keep the chance of victory alive, key officials could start thinking about the leadership contest even before the campaign was over. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see what the electorate's reaction to this development will be. Gallardon is by far the most popular PP official with the electorate, however his allies within the party are very few.

Finally, it's also worrying how the likes of COPE radio, the Church's radio station, and other hardline media outlets have increased their influence within PP. Jimenez Losantos, COPE's star presenter, has publicly strongly criticised Gallardon for his moderation and openly opposed his incorporation to the party's list in Madrid.

The war within PP: Madrid.

Rajoy has declared today that it could be possible for a mayor to be candidate for Congress in March according to his party's Constitution. He gave this answer to a question by a journalist asking about the possibility of Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, mayor of Madrid, being his number 2 in the list for Madrid in the March election.

With this comment Rajoy has for the second time this year contradicted one of his own party officials. Ignacio Gonzalez, Esperanza Aguirre's right-hand man in Madrid, claimed this Sunday in El Mundo that it is incompatible to hold both positions under PP internal rules. Several months ago it was Angel Acebes, Secretary General of PP, who stated a similar position.

As this blog has been commenting for a while now there is an internal struggle within PP to position key candidates to the succession of Rajoy in case he loses the general election in March. Esperanza Aguirre, President of the region of Madrid, who controls the party in the capital, has been trying for months to block the possiblity of Ruiz Gallardon entering the national lists for Congress. Aguirre cannot become a Congresswoman while President of Madrid, Spanish law doesn't permit this possibility, so she's trying to block Gallardon from doing so. The reason for this is that it's expected that the leader of the main oppossition party must be a member of Congress to be able to debate the President in the chamber. She could be a Senator under the law but the Senate attracts substantially less media attention which would make a leadership challenge from there much more difficult. Aguirre has got the hardliners within PP on her side, Acebes positioning months ago is a clear example, Gallardon on the other side got the more moderate wing of the party.

Rajoy, is seriously considering having Gallardon as his number 2 for Madrid in March, PP strategists consider that this move would put a face of moderation in PP's lists to appeal to centrist voters. But Aguirre isn't going to let it be without putting up a fight within the party in Madrid, her own powerhouse. Under PP's Constitution, the party list for Madrid has to be approved first by Madrid's Regional Electoral Committee, which funnily enough is chaired by Ignacio Gonzalez. Rajoy and Gallardon have a tremendous battle ahead to bypass that roadblock organised by Aguirre and the party's hardliners. Furthermore, Rajoy has already distanced himself from Acebes and Zaplana. If they feel left behind in the eventuality of a leadership contest they will openly align with Aguirre against Rajoy and Gallardon and the battle could then turn out to be really nasty.

PP already looking to 2012.

The new PP campaign with the slogan 'Con Rajoy es posible', copied from IU's 'con IU es posible', has proven a total disaster for the party in a similar way to the infamous Tory campaing in the UK under Michael Howard, the 'are you thinking what we are thinking?' 2005 campaign.
Flickr users have been creating 'alternative' slogans for the campaign and the joke doesn't seem to be stopping any time soon. You can find them in http://www.flickr.com/photos/marianorajoi/

Of all the 'alternative' slogans in Flickr however there is one that is worrying Rajoy and his campaign team. It is the one with Esperanza Aguirre, the main contender to replace Rajoy if PP loses the election, laughing behind Rajoy and the slogan 'Espe 2012, with Rajoy it is possible'.

But that isn't the only reference to Rajoy's future, or lack of it, in the leadership of the party. Newspapers across the country gave big headlines to the announcement that Rodrigo Rato, another main contender in the race for the leadership, has been hired as senior executive to Europe and Latin Amercia by the prestigious investment bank Lazard. All political analysts were yesterday debating if this was the end of Rato's political career.

Many in PP are feeling relieved that Rato is out of the way thus protecting Rajoy's leadership. But the reality is that journalists are finding the battle for the leadership more interesting than whatever PP got to offer this time around, which isn't much anyway. Rajoy wasn't able to bring in Rato as part of his team, unlike Zapatero's ability to bring in Bono and Solbes, highlighting even further that he got no team to match up Zapatero's in March. The media is smellling blood already and we are still four months away from election day!

Rajoy, already a lame duck?

What do Rodrigo Rato, former economics Minister and IMF President, Esperanza Aguirre, former Senate leader and President of Madrid, and Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, have in common? Well... all are aiming to replace Rajoy as leader in March.

The public image of PP is that of unity and loyalty to the leader, reminiscent of past and present authoritarian organisations of the kind of the Chinese Communist Pary or Stalinist Russia. However internal realities are quite the opposite. Josep Pique (former leader of PP in Catalonia and Foreign Minister with Aznar), Joaquin Calomarde (independent Congressman after defecting from PP) and even Ruiz Gallardon have criticised Rajoy indirectly by criticising the lack of drive and modern outlook of the party. Many inside PP are concerned that even though the kind of discourse practiced by PP during this term has been its most aggresive ever, Rajoy has not been able to take a single lead in the polls since 2004.
The lack of trust in Rajoy's leadership is so evident that potential succesors have already started positioning themselves for a future leadership contest. Rodrigo Rato, one of the most valued members of Aznar's Cabinet, left the IMF Presidency earlier than his term deadline and refused to join Rajoy's candidate list in Madrid. Many believe his idea is to avoid the potentially disastrous 2008 campaign and become the party's saviour in 2012.
However the greates contest for the leadership is happening in Madrid. The Mayor of the city, Ruiz Gallardon, and the President of the Region of Madrid, Esperanza Aguirre, are clashing on a daily basis positioning their allies in the electoral lists as well as key centres of power in case of a contest.

The latest battlefront according to El Pais newspaper is IFEMA, the convention centre of Madrid and the most profitable exhibition centre in Europe. It all started as Luis Eduardo Cortes was succesfully elected to the role of Executive Director of the public company, a position newly created that takes away competences from Fermin Lucas, Director General of IFEMA and until now the person effectively running the company. It happens that Cortes is a former regional legislator from PP under Aguirre and Lucas the former Secretary General of PP's Parliamentary Group in the Regional Assembly when Gallardon was President before Aguirre. If one notes that IFEMA bring up to 1% of Madrid's total GDP then the public company becomes a key battlefield for influence in the political capital of the country. Aguirre's allies success in placing Cortes in IFEMA has forced Gallardon's threat to recuse Cortes unless he steps down from other boards of directors he is member of.

The battle has not yet started for Rajoy's succession, but the battle lines have been drawn by the party heavyweights. Rajoy was a lame duck leader since he blew up a 2,402,426 majority taking his party from an absolute majority government to the opposition; but he is now also a lame duck candidate for a party already thinking about 2012.