A blog on the long road to the March 08 general election in Spain.
Monday, 2 June 2008
Hello whatever readers are left of this blog,
As you'd have noticed I stopped blogging here a while ago. We are going back now to 'politics as usual' after the race in Spain and I don't think that many non-Spanish speaking people would want to follow the topic, neither I find it exciting enough at the moment to do so.
But as I really enjoyed blogging so I set up a new blog over at wordpress.com. The new blog is called Forgesian Thinking. It will focused mainly in UK politics but a bit of everything will be thrown in to make it a bit less dense than Zapatero '08 was. There will be stories on the American race, Spanish politics (of course) and anything I find relevant to share with the world really.
So please click on the link and come around have a look!
Mariano Rajoy, the defeated PP candidate in the March 9 election has pledged himself for a third candidacy to the Presidency in 2012. This will be his second term as leader of the opposition.
Rajoy met yesterday with his party leadership and stated his intention to fight for reelection as leader of PP in the summer conference. Heavyweights like Aguirre and Camps, presumed potential succesors, have announced that they won't challenge the current leader. PP is well known for its hierarchical organisationl discipline, hardly leaders' are challenged in public. If Rajoy wants to stay it will be hard to kick him out, only someone with greater authority within the party could force him out, and that person is Jose Maria Aznar. So far Aznar, of whom Rajoy is his chosen successor in 2004, hasn't spoken after the electoral defeat. I presume many younger and ambitious candidates will be awaiting his judgement on the disarray within the conservative party.
The trend is one of increased bipartisanship with two clear losers, IU and ERC that lose 3 and 5 seats respectively. UPyD wins one seat in Madrid and enter Congress.
These results show that the electorate is worried about more radical forms of peripheral nationalisms. It also shows that PSOE has lost a small part of its more moderate 'Spanish' vote to PP and UPyD. However, PSOE makes clear inroads into peripheral nationalist areas in the Basque Country and Catalonia. For the first time in 15 years PSOE wins more votes than the Basque nationalists (PNV) in the three Basque provinces.
So a electoral conclusion would be that PSOE has moved towards the left of the spectrum, winning seats from nationalists and left wing parties. PP on the other side make a small inroad into the more moderate Socialist voters worried about immigration and nationalisms. However, PSOE's increase in votes and the more radical parties losses mean that Zapatero can enjoy a comfortable four years governing on his own with specific pacts with moderate nationalists in Congress. Moreover, Zapatero having dealt with the most controversial parts of the reforms he promised, the territorial ones, should enjoy a more popular mandate until 2012 with a focus on the economic and social policies. PP on the other side has also gained seats which probably will mean that some of their policies on immigration and territoriality will stay. However, their ultra-agressive attitude in Congress these past four years will change as it has failed them. The big question is if Rajoy will stay as leader or resign. With yesterday's results both things are possible, Rajoy could stay arguing that his number have gone up, but younger and more charismatic candidates might be planning to move his chair. Too early to say.
Overall, four more years for PSOE which is a great accomplishment after the very tense past four years. However, lessons must be learnt. A more efficient communication policy is needed to better explain Government actions and policies. Moderation will be essential to not forget our core vote. I am aware that plenty of left wing voters feel that IU and other left wing forces deserve a greater share of the seats and could come back to vote for them in 2012. If that's the case we will need our moderates back.
But for the time being, sit back and enjoy a victory that was tough to achieve but that all Socialists, leadership, activistis, grassroots, all of them have fought inch by inch until the final victory.
We get a bigger majority to govern the country in a more comfortable way. Four more years of Socialism are exactly what Spain needs.
Rajoy conceded victory to Zapatero, but did it in a not very convincing way. For me the most important message to come out of PP's leadership mouth is we will change our opposition strategy. Less confrontation and more cooperation for the good of the country.
But the big news tonight is that PRESIDENT ZAPATERO HAS WON REELECTION IN SPAIN!
I want to thank you all the people who has read this blog for the past five months. I will keep writing for the next few days with post-election analysis. After that I will reflect on what to do with the blog and maybe change the topic slightly, but definitely enjoy blogging and hope to keep doing it in the future.
The final result 169 for PSOE, PP 153. The party still goes on. I would like to remember Isaias Carrasco murdered by ETA on Friday. This Socialist victory is in your honour. Rest in peace comrade.
Andalucia today also voted for their regional government. Polls and commentary are talking about a Socialist victory and the reelection of Manuel Chaves as President of Andalucia. However it could be he lost his absolute majority in the Regional Assembly.
New data as I'm writing, with 16% of all votes counted, PSOE 173 seats and PP 136. PP's vote should go up though. Turnout seems to be around 73% lower than in 2004 but anything over 70% is good news for Zapatero.
I just checked on my champagne bottle and it's chilled and ready to go...hopefully.
Election day is gone into dead heat. The second and final statement from the Interior Ministry on participation was 2 points lower than in 2004. At 5.30 pm 60.95% of the electorate had voted in comparison to 63.02% in 2004.
Furthermore I have been looking at numbers by regions and conservative regions are voting in greater numbers than Socialist ones. However, Cadena Ser radio is reporting that in Madrid, Socialist towns are voting in greater numbers than in the more conservative capital city. Madrid has already surpassed its turnout of 2004, projections claim at 7 pm.
In 15 min. TVE station is starting their eleciton special with first exit polls in 45 min. You can watch live online here.
Illan de Vacas, a little village near Toledo and Madrid, has a population of 6 people. Out of those 6 only 3 can vote. Under the law, every polling booth has to have three people overseeing the process and must remain open until 8pm. The obvious problem here is that the three people at the table are the only ones to vote, but by law (again) they can only introduce their ballot as agents after 8pm. This means that the three only people with a right to vote in Illan de Vacas are seating for 10 hours in front of a box waiting to cast their ballot even though noone else is going to show up to vote. The rules are the rules.
The picture above is the actuall polling station in the village. According to one of the agents they are twisting the rules a little bit by playing a game of domino and taking a little nap before 8pm.
Turnout is high at 2 pm, 40.7%, just 0.3 lower than in 2004. However I'm looking at region by region data and Socialists regions like Andalucia and Catalonia are low (around 37%) while Valencia, Madrid and Murcia, big conservative regions are much higher (47%).
Polls close at 8 pm and the first exit polls will be ready. Final results will come out around 10 pm. All of this Spanish time (GMT+1).
I will bring you any information we get as the day goes along.
Good news in Aragon where some marginals are in play. Participation is 42.4%, higher than average but more importantly Zaragoza and Huesca the two of the provinces that are more Socialist leaning are on 43.4% and 40.24% respectively, while Teruel, more conservative and PP's economic heavyweight Pizarro home region, is on 39.74%.
Still we need a higher turnout in Andalucia and Catalonia, they are key. More to come.
Two days after her dad was murdered by those that want to derail the democratic process she's gone cast her ballot... don't let the right win because you stayed home, VOTE!
Yesterday the joint Congressional condemnation for the assasination of Isaias Carrasco, became exactly what it should not have been, another show of division by PP.
During the closed door meeting, Ignacio Astarloa, PP's spokesperson for justice and security in Congress, demanded a mention to the end of the 2005 Congressional resolution allowing the Government to negotiate a peace process in the Basque Country. All the parties refused his demand as unnecessary in a short note of democratic unity. Afterwards, Joan Ridao, spokesperson for ERC, proposed to have all official spokespeople together to read the statement in a show of unity. Astarloa again refused and prefered to do it each one individually. Finally, Astarloa in his statement revealed two details of the negotiations: that the rest of the parties were against the derogation of the 2005 resolution and to include any mention that no political concessions would be offered in a future peace process (this second issue the parties thought wasn't related to the institutional condemnation). Before him, Aguirre, PP's President of Madrid, live in T5 TV station, after the assasination was known, accused the Government of calling Arnaldo Otegui, the Basque Gerry Adams, a 'man of peace'. Mariano Rajoy himself in the morning avoided any strong words but a 'people know what I think' escaped his lips.
The rest of the parties (PSOE, CiU, PNV, ERC, IU, EA, CHA, BNG and CC) all read the joint statement and did not answer questions from journalists. The democratic unity broken again by the same party that had done for the past four years.
Following on yesterday's murder of a Socialist comrade, I have here translated the words of Sandra Carrasco, daughter of Isaias, and 19 years of age. Her calm and strength yesterday was heart-stopping, people like her and her dad makes one be extremely proud to be part of the Socialist family in Spain.
'First of all I would like to thanks from the bottom of my heart the support of the village of Arrasate. Of those anonymous citizens that have come to me, my family, to offer their love and support in these hard times. Thank you to be with my mother, my brother Adei and my sister Ainara. I also want to use these cameras and mics to thanks the Socialists for being here with us.
My father has been killed for defending freedom, democracy and Socialist ideas. He has always been a courageous man, that stood up. And those that have killed him are just cowards.
But more than anything I want to ask for something. That is that the murder of my father is not manipulated by anyone. We are not going to let that happen. I, my mother, all of us are going to vote. And that is what I ask for. And those that want to show solidarity with my father, and with our pain, must go vote en masse on Sunday to tell the murderers that we are not going to take a single step back. Thank you'.
As part of my masters on politics and communication I have had the great opportunity to attend a class with Philip Gould and Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair's chief strategists from 1997 until 2005, on campaigning techniques.
In the picture above we can see how PP strategists use the grid, a communication tool promoted by Campbell when working in Number 10, that helps structure the campaign's message for clarity of argumentation. PSOE's Ferraz HQ have been refurbished to use an open plant office similar to that of Clinton's 92 Little Rock HQ and Blair's 97 Millbank HQ.
The professionalisation of campaigning in Spain is developing at an extremely fast pace and it seems there are evidence that some of those techniques are coming from the anglosaxon world.
Public excitement, the democratic spirit, politicians talking to the people, everything has been shattered at 3 pm today. ETA has assasinated Isaias Carrasco, a former Socialist candidate to councillor in the village of Mondragon in the Basque Country. Carrasco was killed in front of his wife and daughter at their home's doorstep.
The official campaign has been cancelled and an emergency Congressional meeting has been called by President Zapatero at 7 pm today. Zapatero is flying back to Madrid from Malaga while the Interior Minister, Perez Rubalcaba, is coordinating activities already from the Ministry.
Isaias Carrasco was a PSOE candidate in the past May 2007 local elections and currently worked as a ticket officer in one of the motorways in the area.
This nonsense has got to stop, one cannot but dream of a day when we will have a democratic election in this country free of the fear of terrorism...
In an exercise of extreme egocentrism I would like to point out that Zapatero '08 has got a mention in Charlie Beckett's blog.
Charlie is the Director of the Polis Institute at the London School of Economics. You can check out his blog listed in the blogroll below, some of you might have seen it before as the link has been there for a while. The Polis Institute is a journalism and society think tank attached to the Media department at the LSE as well as the London College of Communications.
A big thanks to Charlie and the LSE Media department, where I'm enrolled, for their support.
Following on yesterday's poll in El Periodic of Andorra, new polls abroad give us a peak on how things are looking before Sunday despite the legal ban enforced within Spain.
El Periodic on its final poll today puts PSOE at 42,6% and PP on 38,6%. PSOE goes up 0,2% and PP down 0,4% from yesterday's poll. This poll today was conducted by GESOP with 1,200 interviews higher than yesterday's with just 900.
The Times newspaper in London has also published a poll that puts PSOE up 3.8 points, the Socialists will get 43,1% of the vote to PP's 39,3%. Interestingly enough, The Times poll also shows a staggering 55,7% of males and 68,1% of females supporting PP's proposal for a contract for immigrants entering Spain.
I think these two polls give a pretty accurate picture of the situation at the moment. The Periodic poll also predicts a lower turnout than in 2004 (75,66%) at around 70%.
The campaign will draw to a close at midnight today, the blogosphere-led Project 80% (aimed at achieving a 80% turnout on Sunday) is on full swing, so wherever you are pick up your phone, laptop or any other way you can contact voters and let's get out the vote, remember low turnout hurts us and that's what PP has been playing at for the past four years. Don't let them play with our democratic system, vote!
Following on yesterday's poll in El Periodic of Andorra, new polls abroad give us a peak on how things are looking before Sunday despite the legal ban enforced within Spain. 
